\u00deetta gengur m.\u00f6.o. ekki. Bankakerfi\u00f0 er \u00ed lamasessi. Vextir eru allt of h\u00e1ir. Eigi\u00f0 f\u00e9 fyrirt\u00e6kjanna er \u00e1 \u00ferotum, enda sogast \u00fea\u00f0 me\u00f0 ofurv\u00f6xtunum inn \u00ed bankana. Hvers konar atvinnustefna er \u00feetta? Um t\u00edu fyrirt\u00e6ki ver\u00f0a gjald\u00ferota \u00e1 dag og tala atvinnuleysingja er komin yfir 16.000. Alls sta\u00f0ar \u00ed l\u00f6ndunum \u00ed kring um okkar er veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 l\u00e6kka vexti. St\u00fdrivextir Bank of England eru a\u00f0 n\u00e1lgast n\u00falli\u00f0. Efnahagsvandinn n\u00fana er ekki a\u00f0 draga \u00far \u00feenslu heldur a\u00f0 koma \u00ed veg fyrir samdr\u00e1tt. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf a\u00f0 l\u00e6kka vexti og moka peningum \u00ed fyrirt\u00e6kin til \u00feess a\u00f0 halda uppi framlei\u00f0slu og atvinnu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00deegar gengi kr\u00f3nunnar hrundi leiddi \u00fea\u00f0 til t\u00edmabundinna ver\u00f0h\u00e6kkana \u00e1 innfluttum v\u00f6rum. \u00deetta er t\u00edmabundin innflutningsver\u00f0b\u00f3lga en ekki ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu\u00feensla vegna umframeftirspurnar innanlands.<\/p>\n
\u00de\u00e1 vaknar spurningin: Hvers vegna \u00e1 k\u00fafurinn af \u00feessu t\u00edmabundna ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguskoti a\u00f0 fara \u00ed gegnum ver\u00f0tryggingarferli\u00f0 (v\u00edsit\u00f6lu neysluver\u00f0s) gegnum h\u00f6fu\u00f0st\u00f3l ve\u00f0l\u00e1na og h\u00e6kka \u00fear me\u00f0 grei\u00f0slubyr\u00f0i af l\u00e1num? Er ekki n\u00f3g a\u00f0 hrun gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins h\u00e6kki innflutningsver\u00f0? Til hvers a\u00f0 b\u00e6ta gr\u00e1u ofan \u00e1 svart me\u00f0 h\u00e6rri grei\u00f0slubyr\u00f0i l\u00e1na? \u00deetta er ein af m\u00f6rgum spurningum sem \u00cdslendingar brj\u00f3ta n\u00fa heilann um \u00ed \u00feeim hremmingum sem yfir \u00fe\u00e1 hafa duni\u00f0 \u00ed kreppunni. Hvers vegna eiga afborganir m\u00ednar af h\u00fasn\u00e6\u00f0isl\u00e1num a\u00f0 h\u00e6kka vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnin \u00e1kva\u00f0 a\u00f0 h\u00e6kka skatta \u00e1 brenniv\u00edni og bens\u00edni? Skattah\u00e6kkunin ein \u00fat af fyrir sig skerti kaupm\u00e1tt minn. Hvers vegna \u00fearf a\u00f0 sker\u00f0a hann frekar me\u00f0 h\u00e6kkun afborgana af l\u00e1num? Er \u00fea\u00f0 ekki \u00f3skylt m\u00e1l? Er nema von a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 vefjist fyrir landanum a\u00f0 skilja systemi\u00f0 \u00ed \u00feessum galskap?<\/p>\n
\u00c1ratugum saman bjuggum vi\u00f0, \u00cdslendingar, vi\u00f0 vi\u00f0varandi ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu (30-40% \u00e1 \u00e1ri), langt umfram a\u00f0rar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir \u00ed Evr\u00f3pu. Vextir n\u00e1\u00f0u aldrei upp \u00ed ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguna (raunvextir voru neikv\u00e6\u00f0ir). Sparif\u00e9 brann upp \u00ed ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgunni. Hluti l\u00e1na var \u00ed reynd styrkur. A\u00f0 baki bj\u00f3 s\u00fa sta\u00f0reynd a\u00f0 kr\u00f3nan var ekki noth\u00e6fur gjaldmi\u00f0ill. Gjaldmi\u00f0ill \u00e1 ekki bara a\u00f0 vera reiknieining. Hann \u00fearf a\u00f0 geyma \u00ed s\u00e9r ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti, sem stenst fr\u00e1 einum t\u00edma til annars. \u00cdslenska kr\u00f3nan er ekkert af \u00feessu. Enginn treysti s\u00e9r til a\u00f0 veita l\u00e1n til langs t\u00edma \u00ed kr\u00f3num nema \u00fe\u00e1 gegn ofurv\u00f6xtum. Ver\u00f0tryggingunni var\u00f0 komi\u00f0 \u00e1 (ca. 1979) til \u00feess a\u00f0 leysa \u00feennan vanda. Tilgangurinn me\u00f0 henni var (1) a\u00f0 bjarga l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0unum fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 brenna upp, (2) a\u00f0 \u00f6rva sparifj\u00e1rmyndun, (3) a\u00f0 draga \u00far l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1rhungri og (4) a\u00f0 b\u00faa til m\u00e6likvar\u00f0a \u00e1 ar\u00f0semi fj\u00e1rfestinga (\u00e1\u00f0ur borga\u00f0i allt sig af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 l\u00e1nin voru gefins).<\/p>\n
Ver\u00f0tryggingin var me\u00f0 \u00f6.o. ney\u00f0arr\u00e1\u00f0st\u00f6fun. Henni var komi\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00ed sta\u00f0inn fyrir noth\u00e6fan gjaldmi\u00f0il. \u00dar \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 kr\u00f3nan er \u00f3n\u00fdt \u00fe\u00e1 notum vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingarkr\u00f3nu. \u00deetta var \u00e1 s\u00ednum t\u00edma harkaleg a\u00f0ger\u00f0 til a\u00f0 draga \u00far innbygg\u00f0um ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguhv\u00f6tum. \u00deetta skila\u00f0i \u00e1rangri, einkum framan af. A\u00f0alatri\u00f0i\u00f0 er a\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingin bjarga\u00f0i l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0unum. L\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0irnir eru helsti styrkur okkar hagkerfis. \u00deeir fela \u00ed s\u00e9r sj\u00f3\u00f0s\u00f6fnun sem er hvort tveggja ver\u00f0trygg\u00f0 og skilar \u00e1v\u00f6xtun \u2013 ar\u00f0i af fj\u00e1rfestingum. \u00deetta var \u00e1 s\u00ednum t\u00edma mikil framf\u00f6r.<\/p>\n
En ver\u00f0trygging skv. neysluver\u00f0sv\u00edsit\u00f6lu hefur afleita galla til langs t\u00edma. Vi\u00f0 f\u00f3rum \u00far einum \u00f6fgunum \u00ed a\u00f0ra. \u00cd gamla kerfinu voru \u00fea\u00f0 sparifj\u00e1reigendur sem voru f\u00e9fl\u00e9ttir, en skuldararnir ver\u00f0launa\u00f0ir. \u00cd ver\u00f0tryggingarkerfinu hafa fj\u00e1rmagnseigendur ( bankar, l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0ir o.fl.) allt sitt \u00e1 \u00feurru. \u00deeir taka enga \u00e1h\u00e6ttu (\u00fe.e. vi\u00f0 venjulegar kringumst\u00e6\u00f0ur \u2013 \u00fea\u00f0 \u00fearf kerfishrun til a\u00f0 valda \u00feeim ska\u00f0a). N\u00fa er \u00fea\u00f0 l\u00e1ntakandinn sem ber einn alla \u00e1h\u00e6ttu. A\u00f0 v\u00edsu er \u00fea\u00f0 svo a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 erum flest okkar allt \u00ed senn: sparifj\u00e1reigendur og fj\u00e1rmagnseigendur (\u00ed gegnum l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0i) og l\u00e1ntakendur og skuldarar og skattgrei\u00f0endur. \u00deetta getur leitt til margv\u00edslegra hagsmuna\u00e1rekstra sem birtast me\u00f0 \u00f3l\u00edkum h\u00e6tti, t.d. \u00e1 hinum \u00fdmsu \u00e6viskei\u00f0um.<\/p>\n
Einn versti gallinn vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingarkerfi\u00f0, ef menn b\u00faa vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 til langframa, er a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 losar r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnir undan \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0haldi a\u00f0 taka aflei\u00f0ingum ger\u00f0a sinna. Aflei\u00f0ingum mistakanna er s\u00f3pa\u00f0 undir teppi
\nver\u00f0tryggingarinnar. Fari ver\u00f0b\u00f3lga \u00far b\u00f6ndunum rj\u00faka vextir ekki strax upp \u00far \u00f6llu valdi. Ef \u00feeir ger\u00f0u \u00fea\u00f0 mundi eftirspurn eftir l\u00e1nsf\u00e9 falla, fyrirt\u00e6ki mundu komast \u00ed \u00ferot, atvinnuleysi mundi aukast og almenningur mundi breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0. En me\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingunni h\u00e6kkar h\u00f6fu\u00f0st\u00f3ll l\u00e1na me\u00f0 varanlegum h\u00e6tti \u00fat l\u00e1nst\u00edmann en nafnvextir eru \u00e1fram fastir.<\/p>\n
Dugi ver\u00f0tryggingin ekki til \u00feess a\u00f0 draga \u00far l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1r\u00feenslu ver\u00f0ur \u00e1standi\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 tekur \u00f3\u00feolandi. Ver\u00f0tryggingin ver\u00f0ur \u00fe\u00e1 partur af sj\u00e1lfvirku ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguferli. \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagi\u00f0 lagar sig a\u00f0 varanlegri ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu. Ver\u00f0tryggingin sl\u00e6vir hvatann til a\u00f0 taka \u00e1 vandanum. Endanlega ver\u00f0ur ver\u00f0tryggingin sj\u00e1lf ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguvaldur.<\/p>\n
Einn kerfisgalli ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar er s\u00e1 a\u00f0 h\u00fan endurspeglar neyslumynstur li\u00f0ins t\u00edma. \u00cd fyrra var uppsveifla. F\u00f3lk fj\u00e1rfesti \u00ed varanlegum neysluv\u00f6rum, eins og b\u00edlum, h\u00fasb\u00fana\u00f0i o.fl. \u00c1 samdr\u00e1ttart\u00edmum breytist mynstri\u00f0 en neyslum\u00e6lingin m\u00e6lir li\u00f0na t\u00ed\u00f0.<\/p>\n
Hvernig getum vi\u00f0 losna\u00f0 \u00fat \u00far v\u00edtahring ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar? \u00dea\u00f0 segir sig sj\u00e1lft a\u00f0 ef ver\u00f0trygging v\u00e6ri afnumin \u00feegar ver\u00f0b\u00f3lga og st\u00fdrivextir eru upp undir 20% \u00fe\u00e1 mundu nafnvextir rj\u00faka upp \u00far \u00f6llu valdi eins og skot. \u00dea\u00f0 hef\u00f0i \u00feegar \u00ed sta\u00f0 alvarlegar aflei\u00f0ingar. Eftirspurn eftir l\u00e1nsf\u00e9 mundi gufa upp enda vaxtabyr\u00f0in \u00f3b\u00e6rileg. Svo ber a\u00f0 hafa \u00ed huga a\u00f0 sj\u00f3\u00f0ur eins og \u00cdb\u00faal\u00e1nasj\u00f3\u00f0ur fj\u00e1rmagnar sig me\u00f0 skuldabr\u00e9fa\u00fatg\u00e1fu \u00e1 ver\u00f0tryggingarkj\u00f6rum sem gilda \u00e1ratugi fram \u00ed t\u00edmann. Afn\u00e1m ver\u00f0tryggingar hj\u00e1 l\u00e1ntakendum mundi \u00fev\u00ed setja sj\u00f3\u00f0inn \u00e1 hausinn fyrr en varir.<\/p>\n
\u00deetta \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 ver\u00f0trygging ver\u00f0ur ekki afnumin me\u00f0 einu pennastriki. \u00dea\u00f0 tekur langan t\u00edma a\u00f0 ey\u00f0a \u00e1hrifum hennar \u00fat \u00far kerfinu. Endanleg ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a er \u00feessi: Til \u00feess a\u00f0 losna vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0trygginguna ver\u00f0ur \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagi\u00f0 a\u00f0 taka upp traustan gjaldmi\u00f0il sem var\u00f0veitir ver\u00f0gildi sitt fr\u00e1 einum t\u00edma til annars. Eina lei\u00f0in fyrir okkur \u00cdslendinga til a\u00f0 losna \u00fat \u00far v\u00edtahring ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar er a\u00f0 losa okkur vi\u00f0 kr\u00f3nuna og ganga inn \u00ed st\u00e6rra og \u00f6flugra myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i sem getur sta\u00f0i\u00f0 undir hlutfallslega traustum gjaldmi\u00f0li<\/b>. Vi\u00f0 erum a\u00f0 tala um a\u00f0 ganga \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandi\u00f0 og taka upp evru. \u00dea\u00f0 er framb\u00fa\u00f0arlausnin.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00dea\u00f0 er engin eftirspurnar\u00feensla \u00ed hagkerfinu til a\u00f0 kynda undir ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu. \u00devert \u00e1 m\u00f3ti. Framundan er samdr\u00e1ttur og jafnvel ver\u00f0hj\u00f6\u00f0nun. \u00dees vegna er fur\u00f0ulegt a\u00f0 Se\u00f0labankinn (e\u00f0a IMF\/AGS) skuli halda uppi 18% st\u00fdriv\u00f6xtum. Til hvers? Til \u00feess a\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0va fj\u00e1rfl\u00f3tta \u00far landi, segja \u00feeir. \u00deess \u00fearf ekki \u00fear sem vi\u00f0 b\u00faum vi\u00f0 gjaldeyrish\u00f6ft. \u00dea\u00f0 er banna\u00f0 a\u00f0 flytja f\u00e9 \u00far landi nema me\u00f0 leyfi. Hves vegna er \u00fe\u00e1 veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 halda uppi 18% v\u00f6xtum? Til \u00feess a\u00f0 draga \u00far ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu segja \u00feeir. En \u00fea\u00f0 er engin ver\u00f0b\u00f3lga – \u00fea\u00f0 er ver\u00f0hj\u00f6\u00f0nun framundan. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1172"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1172\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2873,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1172\/revisions\/2873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}