\u00deetta var r\u00e9ttur sta\u00f0ur og stund til a\u00f0 kom \u00feessum skilabo\u00f0um \u00e1 framf\u00e6ri \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 skv. l\u00f6gb\u00f3kinni er \u00d3lafur J\u00f3hannesson, fv. forma\u00f0ur Frams\u00f3knarflokksins, h\u00f6fundur ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar. Ver\u00f0tryggingin var leidd \u00ed l\u00f6g snemma \u00e1rs 1979 og l\u00f6gin jafnan kennd vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fund sinn \u2013 k\u00f6llu\u00f0 \u00d3lafsl\u00f6g \u2013 enda kva\u00f0st \u00d3lafur hafa sami\u00f0 frumvarpi\u00f0 \u201cvi\u00f0 eldh\u00fasbor\u00f0i\u00f0 heima hj\u00e1 s\u00e9r.\u201d \u00de\u00f3tt b\u00e6\u00f0i \u00e9g og a\u00f0rir hafi v\u00e9fengt h\u00f6fundarr\u00e9tt lagapr\u00f3fessorsins a\u00f0 \u00feessari frumvarpssm\u00ed\u00f0, hefur \u00fea\u00f0 l\u00edtinn \u00e1rangur bori\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
N\u00fa vilja flestir gleyma \u00fev\u00ed af hverju meirihluti al\u00fe\u00edngis greip til \u00feess ney\u00f0ar\u00farr\u00e6\u00f0is \u00e1 \u201cframs\u00f3knar\u00e1ratugnum\u201d a\u00f0 l\u00f6glei\u00f0a ver\u00f0tryggingu fj\u00e1rskuldbindinga. Sk\u00fdringin er einf\u00f6ld. Me\u00f0 vi\u00f0varandi 25-30% ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu var \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0argjaldmi\u00f0illinn \u2013 \u00edslenska kr\u00f3nan \u2013 or\u00f0in \u00f3noth\u00e6f \u00ed vi\u00f0skiptum. Enginn vildi spara. N\u00fdstofna\u00f0ir l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0ir brunnu \u00e1 ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgub\u00e1linu. L\u00e1n b\u00e1ru neikv\u00e6\u00f0a vexti og voru a\u00f0 hluta styrkir til skj\u00f3lst\u00e6\u00f0inga bankakerfis, sem var reki\u00f0 af samtryggingarkerfi flokkanna. \u00dear af lei\u00f0andi var enginn noth\u00e6fur m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i \u00e1 ar\u00f0semi fj\u00e1rfestinga. Allt borga\u00f0i sig af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 l\u00e1n voru a\u00f0 hluta gjafaf\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Eignatilf\u00e6rslan var st\u00f6\u00f0ug fr\u00e1 sparifj\u00e1reigendum til skuldara. Ver\u00f0tryggingin var \u00e1 s\u00ednum t\u00edma harkaleg a\u00f0ger\u00f0. H\u00fan \u00fej\u00f3na\u00f0i \u00feeim \u00fer\u00edeina tilgangi a\u00f0 \u00f6rva sparna\u00f0, draga \u00far l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1reftirspurn og auka ar\u00f0semi fj\u00e1rfestinga. \u00dea\u00f0 sem meira var. H\u00fan skila\u00f0i t\u00edmabundnum \u00e1rangri. \u00dea\u00f0 dr\u00f3 \u00far ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu, Ar\u00f0semi fj\u00e1rfestinga j\u00f3kst. Me\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingarkr\u00f3nu var h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 veita l\u00e1n til langs t\u00edma, sem hef\u00f0i veri\u00f0 \u00fatiloka\u00f0 me\u00f0 30-40% nafnv\u00f6xtum.<\/p>\n
En \u00fe\u00f3tt \u00d3lafi J\u00f3hannessyni, Flj\u00f3tamanni og formanni Frams\u00f3knarflokksins, hafi \u00e1rei\u00f0anlega gengi\u00f0 gott eitt til me\u00f0 setningu \u00d3lafslaga, var lausnin ekki gallalaus. Reyndar \u00e1tti \u00feetta \u00e6vinlega a\u00f0 vera t\u00edmabundin r\u00e1\u00f0st\u00f6fun. Ver\u00f0tryggingin \u00e1tti a\u00f0 vera eitt af hj\u00e1lpart\u00e6kjum okkar til a\u00f0 kve\u00f0a ni\u00f0ur ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu. Anna\u00f0 hj\u00e1lpart\u00e6ki var \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ars\u00e1tt um launah\u00e6kkanir innan marka framlei\u00f0niaukningar. \u00deri\u00f0ja hj\u00e1lpart\u00e6ki\u00f0 var EES-samningurinn fr\u00e1 1994.<\/p>\n
EES-samningurinn b\u00e6tti samkeppnisst\u00f6\u00f0u \u00edslensks atvinnul\u00edfs me\u00f0 st\u00e6kkun heimamarka\u00f0ar, samr\u00e6mdum samkeppnisreglum og grei\u00f0ara a\u00f0gengi a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rmagnsm\u00f6rku\u00f0um. \u00de\u00e1 vanta\u00f0i fyrst og fremst eitt til vi\u00f0b\u00f3tar: A\u00f0gengi a\u00f0 traustum, al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legum gjaldmi\u00f0li. \u00dea\u00f0 hef\u00f0i samkv\u00e6mt skilgreiningu \u00fe\u00fdtt afn\u00e1m ver\u00f0tryggingar. Af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingin var upphaflega tilkomin vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 r\u00e9\u00f0um ekki yfir gjaldmi\u00f0li, sem var noth\u00e6fur \u00ed v\u00ed\u00f0skiptum.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feetta seinasta sem br\u00e1st. Fr\u00e1 og me\u00f0 gildist\u00f6ku EES-samningsins 1994 h\u00f3fst vaxtarskei\u00f0 \u00ed \u00edslensku efnahagsl\u00edfi, framan af vi\u00f0 tilt\u00f6lulega l\u00e1ga ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu og st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika. \u00c1 \u00feessum \u00e1rum, upp \u00far 1995 fram a\u00f0 einkav\u00e6\u00f0ingu r\u00edkisbanka 2002, uppfylltum vi\u00f0 \u00cdslendingar \u00f6ll skilyr\u00f0i fyrir \u00fe\u00e1ttt\u00f6ku \u00ed evr\u00f3pska myndsv\u00e6\u00f0inu, \u00ed framhaldi af a\u00f0gengi okkar a\u00f0 hinum sameiginlega innri marka\u00f0i. Ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgan var l\u00e1g. R\u00edkisfj\u00e1rm\u00e1lin voru \u00ed lagi. Skuldir hins opinbera voru innan marka. Vextir voru innan settra marka. Veikleikinn var \u00f3st\u00f6\u00f0ugleiki \u00ed gengi kr\u00f3nunnar sem hef\u00f0i \u00fe\u00f3 veri\u00f0 haminn innan vikmarka ERM-kerfisins.<\/p>\n
\u00dev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur sofna\u00f0i \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0in \u00e1 ver\u00f0inum. Velgengnin steig forr\u00e1\u00f0am\u00f6nnum lands og \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ar til h\u00f6fu\u00f0s svo a\u00f0 \u00feeir fylltust drembil\u00e6ti og hroka. Menn t\u00f6ldu s\u00e9r tr\u00fa um a\u00f0 f\u00f6lsk l\u00edfskj\u00f6r, bygg\u00f0 \u00e1 erlendum l\u00e1nt\u00f6kum og h\u00f3flausri skuldsetningu, v\u00e6ri til marks um me\u00f0f\u00e6dda yfirbur\u00f0i og eigi\u00f0 \u00e1g\u00e6ti. Fyrirhyggja, bygg\u00f0 \u00e1 d\u00fdrkeyptri reynslu, var l\u00e1tin l\u00f6nd og lei\u00f0. Menn t\u00f6ldu s\u00e9r tr\u00fa um a\u00f0 \u00ferj\u00fa hundru\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fasund manna \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0 g\u00e6ti haldi\u00f0 uppi sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0u myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0av\u00e6ddu fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakerfi. S\u00fa hugmynd var fr\u00e1 upphafi galin. Ef hruni\u00f0 hefur kennt okkur eina lex\u00edu, sem vi\u00f0 megum aldrei gleyma, \u00fe\u00e1 er h\u00fan \u00feessi: Aldrei aftur. Etjum ekki \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0inni aftur \u00fat \u00ed feig\u00f0arflan af \u00feessu tagi me\u00f0 \u00f3noth\u00e6fan gjaldmi\u00f0il sem flotholt. \u00de\u00e1 er vo\u00f0inn v\u00eds.<\/p>\n
Hva\u00f0 m\u00e1 af \u00feessu l\u00e6ra? Ver\u00f0tryggingunni var komi\u00f0 \u00e1 af illri nau\u00f0syn \u00e1 s\u00ednum t\u00edma. \u00deetta \u00e1tti a\u00f0 vera skammt\u00edmar\u00e1\u00f0st\u00f6fun. \u00dea\u00f0 var vanr\u00e6kslusynd a\u00f0 l\u00e1ta hana festast \u00ed sessi. Aukaverkanirnar eru farnar a\u00f0 valda verulegum \u00fej\u00e1ningum. R\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnir komast upp me\u00f0 glapr\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed hagstj\u00f3rn af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 aflei\u00f0ingunum er s\u00f3pa\u00f0 undir teppi ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar. Slegi\u00f0 \u00e1 frest. \u00cd sta\u00f0 \u00feess a\u00f0 draga \u00far l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1reftirspurn og ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu \u00fdtir h\u00fan n\u00fa or\u00f0i\u00f0 undir hvort tveggja. En \u00fea\u00f0 versta er a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum sveiflast \u00far einum \u00f6fgum \u00ed a\u00f0rar. \u00c1\u00f0ur voru hagsmunir sparifj\u00e1reigenda gersamlega fyrir bor\u00f0 bornir. Skuldarar \u00feurftu ekki a\u00f0 borga l\u00e1n s\u00edn til baka nema a\u00f0 hluta. Kerfi\u00f0 \u00fdtti undir feilfj\u00e1rfestingar, litla framlei\u00f0ni og l\u00e9lega ar\u00f0semi.<\/p>\n
Me\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingunni var d\u00e6minu sn\u00fai\u00f0 vi\u00f0. Fj\u00e1rmagnseigendur (\u00fe.m.t. fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastofnanir og l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0ir) hafa allt sitt \u00e1 \u00feurru.\u00deeir taka n\u00e1nast enga \u00e1h\u00e6ttu.\u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf alla vega kerfishrun til a\u00f0 hagsmunum \u00feeirra s\u00e9 \u00f3gna\u00f0. En hvort heldur er ytri \u00e1f\u00f6ll e\u00f0a ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguskellir bitna me\u00f0 fullum \u00feunga \u00e1 skuldurum. Grei\u00f0slubyr\u00f0i \u00feeirra er or\u00f0in svo \u00feung a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er l\u00edti\u00f0 afl\u00f6gu til fj\u00e1rfestingar, umfram l\u00e1gmarksneyslu. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feess vegna sem hagkerfi\u00f0 er a\u00f0 skreppa saman. Vi\u00f0 erum a\u00f0 stefna \u00ed ver\u00f0hj\u00f6\u00f0nun \u00ed sta\u00f0 verb\u00f3lgu. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00f3\u00feekkt landsv\u00e6\u00f0i \u2013 terra incognita \u2013 mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 fyrri reynslu ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagsins.<\/p>\n
Er \u00fe\u00e1 kominn r\u00e9tti t\u00edminn til a\u00f0 losa okkur \u00fat \u00far v\u00edtahring ver\u00f0tryggingarinnar og jafna \u00e1h\u00e6ttu og byr\u00f0um milli l\u00e1nardrottna og skuldara? E\u00f0a er verkefni\u00f0 einfaldlega svo st\u00f3rt a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 ver\u00f0i ekki r\u00e1\u00f0i\u00f0, nema me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 skipta um gjaldmi\u00f0il \u2013 leita skj\u00f3ls innan virkisveggja st\u00e6rra myntsv\u00e6\u00f0is? \u00deetta er st\u00f3ra spurningin um peningam\u00e1lastefnu til framt\u00ed\u00f0ar, \u00ed sta\u00f0 \u00feeirrar sem hrundi. Stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1laflokkar, sem skila au\u00f0u var\u00f0andi \u00feessa spurningu fyrir kosningar, eru ekki \u00e1 vetur setjandi eftir kosningar.<\/p>\n
(H\u00f6f. hefur starfa\u00f0 \u00ed r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnum me\u00f0 Al\u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ubandalagi, Frams\u00f3knarflokki og Sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0isflokki<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c1 fundi Frams\u00f3knarf\u00e9laganna \u00ed Reykjav\u00edk \u00e1 Grand H\u00f3tel s.l. m\u00e1nudagskv\u00f6ld sag\u00f0i Gunnar T\u00f3masson, hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur, a\u00f0 ver\u00f0tryggingin v\u00e6ri mestu hagstj\u00f3rnarmist\u00f6k \u00cdslandss\u00f6gunnar. Ef veitt v\u00e6ru N\u00f3belsver\u00f0laun fyrir vitlausar hugmyndir \u00ed hagfr\u00e6\u00f0i, (sem gerist alltaf \u00f6\u00f0ru hverju) \u00e6tti h\u00f6fundur hennar N\u00f3belsver\u00f0launin skilin. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1185"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2858,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185\/revisions\/2858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}