D\u00e6mi: Sparifj\u00e1reigendur, breskir og hollenskir hj\u00e1 Icesave, voru \u00ed g\u00f3\u00f0ri tr\u00fa um a\u00f0 einstaklingsbundnar sparifj\u00e1rinnist\u00e6\u00f0ur \u00feeirra nytu l\u00f6gbundinnar tryggingar. \u00dea\u00f0 er r\u00e9tt skv. \u00edslenskum l\u00f6gum. \u00cdslenskum stj\u00f3rnv\u00f6ldum (\u00fe.m.t. eftirlitsstofnunum) var fullkunnugt um \u00feetta. Um \u00fea\u00f0 r\u00edkti engin \u00f3vissa. \u00dea\u00f0 var \u00e1 valdi \u00edslenskra stj\u00f3rnvalda a\u00f0 firra \u00edslenska skattgrei\u00f0endur \u00feeirri \u00e1h\u00e6ttu a\u00f0 innist\u00e6\u00f0utryggingin lenti \u00e1 \u00feeim. \u00deau brug\u00f0ust. \u00dea\u00f0 er l\u00fd\u00f0skrum af verstu sort \u00ed bland vi\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0rembu, \u00feegar \u00edslenskir stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1lamenn, sem brug\u00f0ust umbj\u00f3\u00f0endum s\u00ednum og sv\u00e1fu \u00e1 vaktinni, reyna a\u00f0 kenna \u00f6\u00f0rum um.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er s\u00ed\u00f0asta sort a\u00f0 varpa eigin s\u00f6k \u00e1 a\u00f0ra me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 kynda undir \u00fatlendingahatri. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fea\u00f0 seinasta sem vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum efni \u00e1 \u00feessi misserin. Eina spurningin sem enn er \u00f3svara\u00f0 \u00ed \u00feessu m\u00e1li er, hversu miki\u00f0 m\u00e1 innheimta upp \u00ed skuldina af \u00fatistandandi eignum Landsbankans. J\u00fa, og eitt \u00ed vi\u00f0b\u00f3t: Hva\u00f0a kj\u00f6r f\u00e1st \u00e1 \u00feeim l\u00e1num sem Bretar og Hollendingar bj\u00f3\u00f0a \u00edslenska r\u00edkinu til a\u00f0 standa vi\u00f0 innist\u00e6\u00f0utrygginguna (ca. 650 milljar\u00f0ar \u00edkr.)? \u00dear munar miklu hvort vextirnir ver\u00f0a me\u00f0 \u201c\u00cdslands\u00e1lagi\u201d ( allt a\u00f0 7% me\u00f0 \u00e1h\u00e6ttu\u00e1lagi) e\u00f0a hvort mi\u00f0a\u00f0 ver\u00f0ur vi\u00f0 vexti Englandsbanka sem eru a\u00f0 n\u00e1lgast n\u00fall. Munurinn getur numi\u00f0 allt a\u00f0 \u00fatflutningsver\u00f0m\u00e6ti sj\u00e1varafur\u00f0a \u00e1 \u00e1ri. \u00dea\u00f0 munar um minna. Hverjir stofnu\u00f0u til \u00feessara skulda? Bankastj\u00f3rar hins einkav\u00e6dda Landsbanka. En \u00feeir ger\u00f0u \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed skj\u00f3li \u00feess a\u00f0 innist\u00e6\u00f0urnar v\u00e6ru l\u00f6gum samkv\u00e6mt trygg\u00f0ar af r\u00edkinu. R\u00edki\u00f0 haf\u00f0i \u00fdmis \u00farr\u00e6\u00f0i til a\u00f0 firra skattgrei\u00f0endur \u00feessari \u00e1h\u00e6ttu og \u00e1byrg\u00f0, en \u201cr\u00edki\u00f0\u201d br\u00e1st. \u00deetta sk\u00fdrir hvers vegna banka- og gjaldmi\u00f0ilshruni\u00f0 velti skuldum yfir \u00e1 r\u00edki\u00f0 (skattgrei\u00f0endur). D\u00e6mi: (1) r\u00edkis\u00e1byrg\u00f0in vegna Icesave, (2) \u00fatl\u00e1natap Se\u00f0labankans, (3) l\u00e1ntaka vegna gjaldeyrisfor\u00f0a Se\u00f0labankans til a\u00f0 halda uppi gengi kr\u00f3nunnar, (4) endurfj\u00e1rm\u00f6gnun r\u00edkisbanka, (5) r\u00edkis\u00e1byrg\u00f0 \u00e1 innist\u00e6\u00f0um \u00edslenska bankakerfisins, (6) r\u00edkis\u00e1byrg\u00f0 \u00e1 skuldum r\u00edkisstofnana (einkum innan orkugeirans) \u00ed erlendum gjaldeyri. Fleira m\u00e6tti t\u00edna til. Dr. Beauter, einn fremsti s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur heims \u00ed fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakreppum og skuldas\u00fapum, telur a\u00f0 skuldir r\u00edkisins , \u00fe.e. skattgrei\u00f0enda, ver\u00f0i \u00feegar upp ver\u00f0ur sta\u00f0i\u00f0, u.\u00fe.b.sem svarar 1\u00bd \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arframlei\u00f0slu
\n2.\t Og \u00fe\u00e1 er komi\u00f0 a\u00f0 kjarna m\u00e1lsins var\u00f0andi m\u00e1lflutning Hudson. Hinga\u00f0 til h\u00f6fum vi\u00f0 bara veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 tala um r\u00edkisskuldir. Allt sem heitir skuldir einkaa\u00f0ila, \u00fear me\u00f0 tali\u00f0 risavaxnar erlendar skuldir hinna einkav\u00e6ddu banka, er \u00fear fyrir utan. Bankarnir ur\u00f0u einfaldlega gjald\u00ferota. \u00deeir eru n\u00fa \u00ferotab\u00fa. Erlendir kr\u00f6fuhafar \u00feeirra geta bara innheimt upp \u00ed kr\u00f6fur \u00fea\u00f0 sem f\u00e6st fyrir eignir bankanna. \u00deessar skuldir einkaa\u00f0ila koma r\u00edkinu (les skattgrei\u00f0endum) ekkert vi\u00f0. Um \u00fea\u00f0 er enginn \u00e1greiningur. Gagnr\u00fdni m\u00edn \u00e1 Hudson var um \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 umr\u00e6\u00f0a hans um skuldas\u00fapu \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0r\u00edkja eftir banka- og gjaldmi\u00f0ilshrun var \u00f3fagleg og \u00f3fulln\u00e6gjandi \u00fear sem hann ger\u00f0i engan greinarmun \u00e1 r\u00edkisskuldum, skuldum sem r\u00edkisstj\u00f3rnir \u00ed umbo\u00f0i almennings \u00ed l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkjum hafa stofna\u00f0 til og bera \u00e1byrg\u00f0 \u00e1, annars vegar, og skuldum einkaa\u00f0ila hins vegar. A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u ber okkur (skattgrei\u00f0endum) engin skylda til a\u00f0 borga skuldir einkaa\u00f0ila. \u00deeir t\u00f3ku l\u00e1n og fengu mikinn ar\u00f0 af fj\u00e1rfestingum s\u00ednum. \u00deeim ber l\u00edka a\u00f0 standa undir tapi ef fj\u00e1rfestingarnar breg\u00f0ast. \u00deeir einkav\u00e6ddu gr\u00f3\u00f0ann og eiga ekki a\u00f0 komast upp me\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0n\u00fdta tapi\u00f0. \u00de\u00fa, Kristj\u00e1n Torfi, lofar ford\u00e6mi Obama um a\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0n\u00fdta tap einkaa\u00f0ila, sem \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 varpa skuldunum yfir \u00e1 her\u00f0ar skattgrei\u00f0enda \u00ed framt\u00ed\u00f0inni. \u00c9g hallast fremur a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed grundvallarsj\u00f3narmi\u00f0i Merkel \u00de\u00fdskalandskanslara a\u00f0 \u00feeir sem hirtu gr\u00f3\u00f0ann eigi sj\u00e1lfir a\u00f0 bera tapi\u00f0.
\n3.\t.\u00c9g stend vi\u00f0 allt sem \u00e9g sag\u00f0i um samanbur\u00f0 vi\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0u Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a annars vegar og okkar \u00cdslendinga hins vegar. \u00deeir eru betur settir a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed leyti a\u00f0 gjaldmi\u00f0lar \u00feeirra, tengdir evru, hafa ekki hruni\u00f0, sem \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 erlendar skuldir hafa ekki tv\u00f6faldast \u00ed erlendum gjaldmi\u00f0li me\u00f0 \u00f6llum \u00feeim aflei\u00f0ingum sem \u00fev\u00ed fylgir og \u00cdslendingar \u00feekkja manna best. \u00dea\u00f0 er einfaldlega rangt sem \u00fe\u00fa segir, Kristj\u00e1n Torfi: \u201c… \u00fea\u00f0 breytir engu hvort \u00fe\u00fa ert st\u00f3r e\u00f0a l\u00edtill.\u201d \u00dea\u00f0 breytir \u00f6llu hvort skuldirnar eru \u00ed eigin gjaldmi\u00f0li e\u00f0a ekki. \u00dea\u00f0 breytir \u00f6llu hvort \u00fe\u00fa ert hluti af st\u00f3ru myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i me\u00f0 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legan gjaldmi\u00f0il sem stenst \u00e1hlaup hersveita gr\u00e6\u00f0ginnar e\u00f0a ekki . \u00dea\u00f0 breytir \u00f6llu hvort \u00fe\u00fa ert varnarlaus fyrir engisprettufar\u00f6ldrum heimskap\u00edtalismans \u2013 jafnvel svo mj\u00f6g a\u00f0 \u201cj\u00f6klabr\u00e9f\u201d spek\u00falanta \u00ed vaxta- og gengismun leggja \u00feig a\u00f0 velli \u2013 e\u00f0a ekki. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feess vegna sem \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir Mi\u00f0- og Austur-Evr\u00f3pu eru verr staddar en a\u00f0ildar\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir evrusv\u00e6\u00f0isins sem byggja \u00e1 traustari v\u00f6rnum.
\n4.\t\u00de\u00fdskur hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur me\u00f0 \u00e1ratuga reynslu \u00ed Austur-Evr\u00f3pu or\u00f0ar \u00feetta svona: \u201cNi\u00f0ursta\u00f0an er \u00feessi: Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legir fj\u00e1rfestar \u00e6ttu a\u00f0 hafa \u00e1hyggjur af flestu \u00f6\u00f0ru en upplausn evrusv\u00e6\u00f0isins. Evr\u00f3pur\u00edki, utan evrusv\u00e6\u00f0isins, eins og t.d. P\u00f3lland og Ungverjaland, taka n\u00fa \u00fat \u00fej\u00e1ningar af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 gjaldmi\u00f0lar \u00feeirra eru undir miklu \u00e1lagi. \u00deessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir reyna af \u00f6llum kr\u00f6ftum a\u00f0 komst undir verndarv\u00e6ng evrunnar. Lex\u00eda heimskreppunnar fyrir \u00feessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir er s\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e6r \u00feurfa a\u00f0 leggja har\u00f0ar a\u00f0 s\u00e9r til a\u00f0 uppfylla skilyr\u00f0in fyrir \u00fe\u00e1ttt\u00f6ku \u00ed evrusv\u00e6\u00f0inu. Sj\u00e1lf kreppan getur or\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00feeim hvati til a\u00f0 taka sig \u00e1. Gefist \u00feau ekki upp \u00e1 mi\u00f0ri lei\u00f0 og n\u00e1i \u00feess \u00ed sta\u00f0 markmi\u00f0i s\u00ednu, mun evrusv\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00ed heild a\u00f0 lokum koma sterkara \u00fat \u00far kreppunni en \u00e1\u00f0ur.\u201d (Holger Schmieding, Global Investor, 23.03.09.)
\n\u00c9g hef engu vi\u00f0 \u00feetta a\u00f0 b\u00e6ta.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Til Kristj\u00e1ns Torfa:
\n\u201cEr \u00feetta einhvers konar n\u00fdfj\u00e1rmagnskratismi sem \u00fe\u00fa talar fyrir undir kj\u00f6ror\u00f0unum \u201calmenningur \u00e1 a\u00f0 borga skuldir \u00f3rei\u00f0umanna\u201d\u201d? – \u00deetta er sk\u00e6tingur sem ekki er svaraver\u00f0ur.
\nAthugasemdir \u00fe\u00ednar a\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0ru leyti ver\u00f0skulda \u00feessi sv\u00f6r:
\n1.\t\u00c9g hef a\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u hvergi haldi\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed fram a\u00f0 r\u00edki\u00f0 (skattgrei\u00f0endur) eigi a\u00f0 grei\u00f0a skuldir einkaa\u00f0ila. Einmitt \u00feess vegna gagnr\u00fdndi \u00e9g Hudson fyrir a\u00f0 gera ekki sk\u00fdran greinarmun \u00e1 r\u00edkisskuldum og skuldum me\u00f0 r\u00edkis\u00e1byrg\u00f0um (\u201csovereign debt\u201d) og skuldum einkaa\u00f0ila. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1188"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1188\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2857,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1188\/revisions\/2857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}