Vi\u00f0 getum or\u00f0i\u00f0 samm\u00e1la um \u00feetta v\u00e6nti \u00e9g. \u00dea\u00f0 er skynsamlegt, \u00feegar menn fer\u00f0ast um \u00f3kunnugt landsv\u00e6\u00f0i \u2013 terra incognita \u2013 a\u00f0 feta sig \u00e1fram af varf\u00e6rni. Flestar fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakreppur, hinga\u00f0 til, hafa veri\u00f0 sta\u00f0bundnar. \u00deegar As\u00edukreppan skall \u00e1 breiddist h\u00fan \u00fat til R\u00fasslands og S-Amer\u00edku, en Amer\u00edka og Evr\u00f3pa h\u00e9ldu velli. \u00deessi vir\u00f0ist \u00e6tla a\u00f0 brei\u00f0ast \u00fat um gj\u00f6rvalla heimsbygg\u00f0ina. \u00dea\u00f0 er ekkert sv\u00e6\u00f0i \u2013 ekki einu sinni K\u00edna \u2013 sem heldur fullum dampi og g\u00e6ti hugsanlega dregi\u00f0 a\u00f0ra a\u00f0 landi. \u00deetta vir\u00f0ist \u00fev\u00ed \u00e6tla a\u00f0 ver\u00f0a sannanleg heimskreppa. \u00deetta gerir hverju einst\u00f6ku hagkerfi erfi\u00f0ara um vik a\u00f0 n\u00e1 s\u00e9r \u00e1 strik. Reyndar ekki fyrirfram v\u00edst a\u00f0 sama lausnin henti alls sta\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er sitthva\u00f0 fleira sem vi\u00f0 erum reyndar samm\u00e1la um, \u00feegar betur er a\u00f0 g\u00e1\u00f0. Vi\u00f0 erum samm\u00e1la um \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 skattgrei\u00f0endur eiga ekki a\u00f0 borga skuldir \u00f3rei\u00f0umanna. Og \u00e9g f\u00e6 ekki betur s\u00e9\u00f0, \u00feegar kemur a\u00f0 leit a\u00f0 lausnum en a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 s\u00e9um samm\u00e1la um a\u00f0 \u00ed kreppu eigi a\u00f0 reka opinbera geirann me\u00f0 halla \u2013 prenta peninga \u2013 til \u00feess a\u00f0 for\u00f0a enn d\u00fdpri samdr\u00e6tti og til \u00feess a\u00f0 halda uppi atvinnu og eftirspurn. \u00deetta er n\u00fa bara s\u00edgildur Keynes, eins og \u00e9g l\u00e6r\u00f0i \u00ed Edinborg \u00ed gamla daga. \u00dearna kemur margt til greina, fyrir utan innbygg\u00f0a sveifluj\u00f6fnun velfer\u00f0arkerfisins \u2013 nfl. a\u00f0 l\u00e6kka skatta og auka \u00fatgj\u00f6ld \u2013 og a\u00f0 hvetja til fj\u00e1rfestinga me\u00f0 l\u00e6kkun vaxta og ni\u00f0urfellingu skulda.<\/p>\n
L\u00edtum fyrst \u00e1 skuldas\u00fapuna. \u00dea\u00f0 er au\u00f0velt a\u00f0 villast \u00ed \u00feeim frumsk\u00f3gi. \u00deegar Willem Buiter talar um eina og h\u00e1lfa landsframlei\u00f0slu sem skuldir r\u00edkisins, \u00fe\u00e1 er hann a\u00f0 tala um br\u00fatt\u00f3skuldir, erlendar og innlendar. Nett\u00f3skuldin mun l\u00e6kka sem svarar s\u00f6luandvir\u00f0i eigna. \u00dea\u00f0 er enn \u00f3\u00feekkt st\u00e6r\u00f0. Mestu skiptir a\u00f0 vita, hverjar eru erlendar skuldir r\u00edkisins, nett\u00f3. \u00dear gefur IMF s\u00e9r a\u00f0 talan samsvari nokkurn veginn VFL. Er \u00fea\u00f0 heimsmet, eins og \u00fe\u00fa segir? M\u00e9r skilst a\u00f0 svo s\u00e9 ekki. Skuldugustu r\u00edki innan Evr\u00f3pusambandsins eins og t.d. Belg\u00eda og \u00cdtal\u00eda sitja upp me\u00f0 skuldir sem samsvara u.\u00fe.b. \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arframlei\u00f0slu \u00feeirra. Eru opinberar skuldir af \u00feessari st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0u umfram grei\u00f0slugetu skattgrei\u00f0enda? \u00de\u00f3tt a\u00f0rar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir hafi or\u00f0i\u00f0 a\u00f0 b\u00faa vi\u00f0 sl\u00edk harmkv\u00e6li (skert l\u00edfskj\u00f6r) m\u00e1 vera a\u00f0 \u00feetta s\u00e9 okkur ofvi\u00f0a \u00feegar teki\u00f0 er tillit til \u00feess, hve erlendar skuldir fyrirt\u00e6kja og heimila eru miklar. \u00c9g er samm\u00e1la \u00fe\u00e9r um \u00fea\u00f0, a\u00f0 partur af lausninni \u00e1 a\u00f0 vera a\u00f0 afskrifa innlendar skuldir fyrirt\u00e6kja og heimila a\u00f0 hluta. Til \u00feess a\u00f0 koma neyslu og eftirspurn \u00ed gang.<\/p>\n
En hva\u00f0 me\u00f0 skuldir \u00f3rei\u00f0umannanna? M\u00e9r skilst a\u00f0 skuldir bankanna og eigenda \u00feeirra s\u00e9u af st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0unni t\u00edf\u00f6ld VLF., a\u00f0 mestu \u00ed erlendum gjaldeyri. Vi\u00f0 erum \u00fe\u00e1 a\u00f0 tala um a.m.k. 14 \u00fe\u00fas. milljar\u00f0a \u00edkr. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf enginn a\u00f0 velkjst \u00ed vafa um, a\u00f0 \u00feetta er langt umfram grei\u00f0slugetu \u00edslensks \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arb\u00fas. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed ekki a\u00f0 koma til \u00e1lita a\u00f0 r\u00edki\u00f0 gangist \u00ed \u00e1byrg\u00f0 fyrir \u00f3rei\u00f0umennina. \u00deeir t\u00f3ku mikla \u00e1h\u00e6ttu og hrepptu mikinn gr\u00f3\u00f0a, sem \u00feeir hafa a\u00f0 mestu fali\u00f0 \u00ed eignarhaldsf\u00e9l\u00f6gum s\u00ednum, handan l\u00f6gs\u00f6gu \u00edslenska r\u00edkisins og utan seilingar skattyfirvalda. \u00dea\u00f0 er svo s\u00e9rstakt \u00farlausnarefni, hvernig unnt er a\u00f0 gera fj\u00e1rfl\u00f3ttamenn skatt- og b\u00f3taskylda, vegna \u00feess ska\u00f0a sem \u00feeir hafa valdi\u00f0 samf\u00e9laginu. Alveg eins og gr\u00f3\u00f0inn var \u00feeirra, eiga skuldirnar a\u00f0 vera \u00feeirra. G\u00f6mlu bankarnir eru gjald\u00ferota. \u00deeir eru \u00ferotab\u00fa \u00ed v\u00f6rslu skiptar\u00e1\u00f0enda. Kr\u00f6fuhafarnir, flesti erlendir bankar og sj\u00f3\u00f0ir eiga kr\u00f6fu \u00ed eignir \u00feessara a\u00f0ila, ef einhverjar ver\u00f0a, \u00feegar upp er sta\u00f0i\u00f0. Hvorki meira n\u00e9 minna. \u00dea\u00f0 sem n\u00fdju bankarnir \u00ed eigu r\u00edkisins t\u00f3ku til s\u00edn af innlendum eignum (innl\u00e1n \u00ed \u00edkr.) ber a\u00f0 meta l\u00e1gt, enda hafa innlendir a\u00f0ilar (sparifj\u00e1reigendur, \u00edb\u00fa\u00f0aeigendur og skattgrei\u00f0endur) be\u00f0i\u00f0 mikinn ska\u00f0a af bankahruninu. \u00dear eru f\u00e1ir undanskildir og s\u00e9rdeilis ekki l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0ir almennings. \u00c9g endurtek \u00fev\u00ed \u00fea\u00f0, sem \u00e9g sag\u00f0i \u00ed fyrra svari til \u00fe\u00edn, a\u00f0 skattgrei\u00f0endur eiga ekki a\u00f0 borga skuldir einkaa\u00f0ilia. \u00dea\u00f0 er b\u00e6\u00f0i l\u00f6glaust og si\u00f0laust. \u00deessu til \u00e1r\u00e9ttingar sendi \u00e9g \u00fe\u00e9r hj\u00e1lagt erindi sem \u00e9g flutti vi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fdskan h\u00e1sk\u00f3la \u00ed lok n\u00f3vember, \u00fear sem \u00feessi sj\u00f3narmi\u00f0 voru n\u00e1nar sk\u00fdr\u00f0.<\/p>\n
\u00c9g f\u00e6 ekki betur s\u00e9\u00f0 en vi\u00f0 s\u00e9um \u00ed st\u00f3rum dr\u00e1ttum samm\u00e1la um greininguna hinga\u00f0 til. Og \u00fe\u00e1 er komi\u00f0 a\u00f0 lausnunum. \u00dea\u00f0 er gagnlegt a\u00f0 skipta \u00feeirri umr\u00e6\u00f0u \u00ed tvennt: (1) Lausnir til skammms t\u00edma, (2) Lausnir til lengri t\u00edma liti\u00f0.<\/p>\n
Til skamms t\u00edma s\u00fdnast m\u00e9r lausnirnar ver\u00f0i a\u00f0 byggja \u00e1 eftirfarandi: (1) L\u00e1gt gengi (eftir hrun), (2) ni\u00f0urfelling skulda a\u00f0 hluta, (3) l\u00e6kkun vaxta til a\u00f0 \u00f6rva eftirspurn, fj\u00e1rfestingu, atvinnusk\u00f6pun og til a\u00f0 l\u00e9tta skuldabyr\u00f0i, (4) aukning peningamagns \u00ed umfer\u00f0 me\u00f0 hallarekstri hins opinbera til a\u00f0 \u00f6rva atvinnul\u00edfi\u00f0. \u00deetta er, eins og \u00e9g \u00e1\u00f0ur sag\u00f0i, bara klass\u00edskur Keynes. \u00dearna stendur IMF\/AGS okkur fyrir \u00ferifum. H\u00e1vaxtastefna \u00feeirra er kolr\u00f6ng. H\u00fan s\u00fdgur \u00fea\u00f0 litla sem eftir er af eigin f\u00e9 fyrirt\u00e6kja \u00fat \u00far \u00feeim og skapar h\u00e6ttu \u00e1 vi\u00f0varandi samdr\u00e6tti (deflation). En getum vi\u00f0 r\u00e1\u00f0i\u00f0 vi\u00f0 vandann einir, \u00e1n atbeina IMF og \u00fe\u00e1 \u00e1n a\u00f0gengis a\u00f0 erlendu l\u00e1nsf\u00e9? \u00deetta er spurning sem \u00e9g hef ekki enn gert upp vi\u00f0 mig. \u00c9g er ekki alveg viss um, hva\u00f0a aflei\u00f0ingar \u00fea\u00f0 hef\u00f0i fyrir \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arb\u00fai\u00f0 og atvinnul\u00edfi\u00f0 ef vi\u00f0 af\u00fe\u00f6kku\u00f0um l\u00e1n IMF item Nor\u00f0urlanda\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a og annarra. \u00de\u00fd\u00f0ir \u00fea\u00f0 einfaldlega lokun fj\u00e1rmagnsmarka\u00f0a og jafnvel \u00f3fyrirs\u00e9\u00f0ar hindranir \u00ed utanr\u00edkisverslun? Hva\u00f0a \u00e1hrif hef\u00f0i \u00fea\u00f0 \u00e1 l\u00e1nakj\u00f6r vegna Icesave? \u00dea\u00f0 getur numi\u00f0 tugum milljar\u00f0a \u00e1 \u00e1ri.<\/p>\n
Til lengri t\u00edma liti\u00f0 tel \u00e9g a\u00f0 tilrauninni me\u00f0 \u00edslensku kr\u00f3nuna sem minnsta myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed heimi vi\u00f0 umhverfi al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legra fj\u00e1rmagnsmarka\u00f0a s\u00e9 loki\u00f0. Vi\u00f0 eigum a\u00f0 leita halds og trausts innan st\u00e6rra myntsv\u00e6\u00f0is me\u00f0 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0lega gjaldgengan gjaldmi\u00f0il a\u00f0 vopni. \u00deetta \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir \u00ed m\u00ednum huga a\u00f0 s\u00e6kja um a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og stefna a\u00f0 uppt\u00f6ku evru. Megin\u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0urnar fyrir \u00feessari ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u minni eru p\u00f3lit\u00edskar og menningarlegar: \u00cdsland \u00e1 a\u00f0 skipa s\u00e9r \u00ed sveit me\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0rum Nor\u00f0urlanda\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um \u00ed sv\u00e6\u00f0isbundnu samstarfi innan Evr\u00f3pusambandsins. \u00deetta er enn lj\u00f3sara en \u00e1\u00f0ur \u00ed m\u00ednum huga vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 kerfishruni\u00f0 hefur afhj\u00fapa\u00f0 dj\u00fapst\u00e6\u00f0a veikleika \u00ed \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagsger\u00f0 okkar og stj\u00f3rnskipan sem \u00e9g hef litla tr\u00fa \u00e1 a\u00f0 ver\u00f0i lagf\u00e6r\u00f0ir, nema me\u00f0 utana\u00f0komandi aga og a\u00f0haldi. \u00c9g nefni sem d\u00e6mi innbygg\u00f0a f\u00e1keppni, sem r\u00edkir \u00e1 \u00f6rmarka\u00f0i kl\u00edkusamf\u00e9lagsins, og samsvarandi veikleika stj\u00f3rnerkerfis og eftirlitsstofnana, sem hafa s\u00fdnt sig \u00ed a\u00f0 vera \u00f3h\u00e6far til a\u00f0 gegna hlutverki s\u00ednu. Vi\u00f0 \u00feetta m\u00e1 b\u00e6ta r\u00f6kum um utanr\u00edkis- og \u00f6ryggism\u00e1l, sem hn\u00edga \u00ed s\u00f6mu \u00e1tt.<\/p>\n
Landb\u00fana\u00f0ur og sj\u00e1var\u00fatvegur munu ekki skapa \u00feau st\u00f6rf sem yngri kynsl\u00f3\u00f0ir \u00cdslendinga eru mennta\u00f0ar til a\u00f0 gegna og munu leita \u00ed, innanlands e\u00f0a erlendis. \u00deessi seinasti skellur hefur endanlega f\u00e6rt forsvarsm\u00f6nnum fyrirt\u00e6kja \u00e1 \u00cdslandi heim sanninn um \u00fea\u00f0, a\u00f0 \u00f3fyrirsj\u00e1anlegar sveiflur \u00ed tekjum og gj\u00f6ldum og reyndar grei\u00f0slubyr\u00f0i skulda, sem hl\u00fdst af \u00f3noth\u00e6fum gjaldmi\u00f0li og \u00f3virkri peningam\u00e1lastj\u00f3rn \u00f6rr\u00edkis, er \u00f3vi\u00f0unandi til framb\u00fa\u00f0ar. Sveiflur kr\u00f3nunnar \u00fdta undir \u00e1h\u00e6ttus\u00e6kni og skammt\u00edmahugsun en torvelda alla \u00e1\u00e6tlunarager\u00f0 og uppbyggingu til langs t\u00edma.Sj\u00e1lfsagt ver\u00f0ur a\u00f0 f\u00f3rna einhverju fyrir \u00feann st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika, sem a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 st\u00e6rra myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i getur veitt, a.m.k. til skamms t\u00edma. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fe\u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0 ver\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0um a\u00f0 s\u00e6tta okkur vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 borga fyrir framt\u00ed\u00f0aruppbyggingu n\u00fat\u00edmaatvinnul\u00edfs og til \u00feess a\u00f0 halda unga f\u00f3lkinu \u00ed landinu. Hver v\u00e6ri framt\u00ed\u00f0in \u00e1n \u00feess?<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201cHvorki \u00e9g n\u00e9 \u00fe\u00fa n\u00e9 helstu s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar heimsins vita hva\u00f0 er framundan. Gagnvart sl\u00edkri \u00f3vissu er heimskulegt a\u00f0 vera me\u00f0 st\u00f3rkarlalegar yfirl\u00fdsingar um hvernig hlutirnir muni \u00fer\u00f3ast.\u201d <\/p>\n
Kristj\u00e1n Torfi 2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1192"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2853,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1192\/revisions\/2853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}