….Rogoff birti varna\u00f0aror\u00f0 s\u00edn \u00ed vi\u00f0tali vi\u00f0 Boga \u00c1g\u00fastsson hj\u00e1 R\u00daV. Hann nota\u00f0i l\u00edka st\u00f3r or\u00f0 \u2013 gott ef hann sag\u00f0i ekki l\u00edka \u201csj\u00e1lfsmor\u00f0stilraun.\u201d Um \u00feetta m\u00e1 \u00ed besta falli segja a\u00f0 betra er illt umtal (\u00ed \u00fatl\u00f6ndum) en ekkert.
\nEftir st\u00f3ryr\u00f0in f\u00f3r \u00fea\u00f0 hins vegar fram hj\u00e1 flestum a\u00f0 Rogoff taldi \u00f6\u00f0ru m\u00e1li gegna, ef \u00cdsland hef\u00f0i veri\u00f0 \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og evrusamstarfinu um skei\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 sta\u00f0festir a\u00f0 pr\u00f3fessornum er, \u00fer\u00e1tt fyrir allt, ekki alls varna\u00f0. Rogoff var t\u00ed\u00f0r\u00e6tt um a\u00f0 heimskreppan, sem \u00e1tti uppruna sinn \u00ed frj\u00e1lshyggjutilrauninni amer\u00edsku, v\u00e6ri a\u00f0 brei\u00f0ast \u00fat um heiminn og a\u00f0 a\u00f0ildar\u00edki Evr\u00f3pusambandsins hef\u00f0u ekki fari\u00f0 varhluta af \u00fev\u00ed. Hins vegar hefur l\u00e1\u00f0st a\u00f0 uppl\u00fdsa manninn um \u00fea\u00f0, a\u00f0 af \u00feeim 30 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um, sem a\u00f0ild eiga a\u00f0 evr\u00f3pska efnahagssv\u00e6\u00f0inu (27+3) , er a\u00f0eins ein, sem lent hefur \u00ed kerfishruni. \u00dear fer saman allt \u00ed senn: Hrun gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins, hrun fj\u00e1m\u00e1lakerfisins og stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1lakreppa, sem sumir segja a\u00f0 n\u00e1lgist a\u00f0 vera stj\u00f3rnkerfiskreppa. \u00deetta land er \u00cdsland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00c1n \u00feess a\u00f0 gera sig sekan um a\u00f0 vilja telja hrekklausu f\u00f3lki tr\u00fa um a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandsa\u00f0ild me\u00f0 evru s\u00e9 p\u00f3lit\u00edsk allrameinab\u00f3t er engu a\u00f0 s\u00ed\u00f0ur \u00f3hj\u00e1kv\u00e6milegt, \u00ed \u00feessu samhengi, a\u00f0 benda \u00e1, a\u00f0 hef\u00f0i \u00cdsland veri\u00f0 a\u00f0ili a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og evrusv\u00e6\u00f0inu, einhvern t\u00edma \u00e1 t\u00edmabilinu fr\u00e1 einkav\u00e6\u00f0ingu banka fram a\u00f0 hruni \u2013 \u00fe\u00e1 v\u00e6ri \u00f3l\u00edkt umhorfs \u00ed \u00edslensku \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagi hj\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed sem er \u00ed dag. L\u00edti\u00f0 \u00e1 eftirfarandi sta\u00f0reyndir:<\/p>\n
Evran hef\u00f0i haldi\u00f0 velli. \u00dea\u00f0 hef\u00f0i ekki or\u00f0i\u00f0 gengishrun.<\/p>\n
Erlendar skuldir fyrirt\u00e6kja og heimila hef\u00f0u \u00fe.a.l. ekki tv\u00f6faldast.<\/p>\n
70% fyrirt\u00e6kja v\u00e6ru \u00fe\u00e1 ekki \u201ct\u00e6knilega gjald\u00ferota.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ver\u00f0b\u00f3lga v\u00e6ri \u00fe\u00e1 ekki \u00ed tveggja stafa t\u00f6lu og st\u00fdrivextir v\u00e6ru ekki 18%. Vextir f\u00e6ru \u00fe\u00e1 reyndar hra\u00f0l\u00e6kkandi eins og annars sta\u00f0ar \u00e1 evrusv\u00e6\u00f0inu.<\/p>\n
Me\u00f0 uppt\u00f6ku evru v\u00e6ri ver\u00f0trygging afl\u00f6g\u00f0.<\/p>\n
\u00cdslensk heimili st\u00e6\u00f0u \u00fe\u00e1 ekki frammi fyrir h\u00f3tun um eignamissi vegna gengis- og ver\u00f0trygg\u00f0ra skulda.<\/p>\n
\u00cdslensku bankarnir hef\u00f0u \u00fe\u00e1 veri\u00f0 starfandi \u00e1 einu st\u00e6rsta myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i heimsins . \u00deeir hef\u00f0u \u00e1tt s\u00edn vi\u00f0skipti \u00ed evrum og \u00edslenski se\u00f0labankinn veri\u00f0 hluti af se\u00f0labanka Evr\u00f3pu sem l\u00e1nveitanda til \u00ferautavara.<\/p>\n
Vel m\u00e1 vera a\u00f0 einstakar fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastofnanir hef\u00f0u \u00feurft \u00e1 a\u00f0sto\u00f0 a\u00f0 halda en \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0ulaust er a\u00f0 \u00e6tla a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakerfi \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arinnar \u00ed heild hef\u00f0i hruni\u00f0.<\/p>\n
Skuldabyr\u00f0i r\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0s hef\u00f0i \u00e1rei\u00f0anlega veri\u00f0 l\u00e9ttv\u00e6gari en n\u00fa er or\u00f0i\u00f0.<\/p>\n
\u00der\u00e1tt fyrir erfi\u00f0leika hef\u00f0i r\u00edkissj\u00f3\u00f0ur ekki sta\u00f0i\u00f0 frammi fyrir nau\u00f0syn ni\u00f0urskur\u00f0ar \u00e1 velfer\u00f0ar\u00fatgj\u00f6ldum inn a\u00f0 beini og verulegum skattah\u00e6kkunum \u00e1 n\u00e6stu \u00e1rum.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er nokku\u00f0 kaldranalegt hj\u00e1 frj\u00e1lshyggjuhagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingnum a\u00f0 vara okkur \u00cdslendinga vi\u00f0 slysum \u00fear sem vi\u00f0 liggjum n\u00fa \u00ed s\u00e1rum okkar \u00e1 slyssta\u00f0num og getum okkur enga bj\u00f6rg veitt, \u00e1n a\u00f0sto\u00f0ar erlendra hj\u00e1lparstofnana. \u00de\u00f3tt Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0agjaldeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0urinn reyni n\u00fa hj\u00e1lp \u00ed vi\u00f0l\u00f6gum, getur hann hvorki leyst skuldavandann n\u00e9 gjaldmi\u00f0ilsskortinn. Hvorugt \u00feessara vandam\u00e1la ver\u00f0a leyst \u00e1n samninga vi\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandi\u00f0 og a\u00f0ildarr\u00edki \u00feess um grei\u00f0lsukj\u00f6r \u00e1 skuldum og uppt\u00f6ku gjaldmi\u00f0ils, sem unnt er a\u00f0 treysta \u00ed millir\u00edkjavi\u00f0skiptum.<\/p>\n
Fyrir f\u00e1um \u00e1rum gaf a\u00f0s\u00f3psmesti talsma\u00f0ur frj\u00e1lshyggjutr\u00fabo\u00f0sins h\u00e9r \u00e1 landi \u00fat b\u00f3k um \u00fea\u00f0, hvernig \u00cdslendingar g\u00e6tu or\u00f0i\u00f0 r\u00edkasta \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0 \u00ed heimi, ef \u00feeir a\u00f0eins f\u00e9llu fram og tilb\u00e6\u00f0u Gu\u00f0 marka\u00f0arins (Upplag \u00feessarar b\u00f3kar f\u00e6st n\u00fa \u00e1 bruna\u00fats\u00f6lu \u00e1 b\u00f3kamarka\u00f0num \u00ed Perlunni). A\u00f0fer\u00f0in \u00e1tti a\u00f0 vera s\u00fa a\u00f0 gera \u00cdsland a\u00f0 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legri fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lami\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 t\u00f3kst a\u00f0 nokkru leyti \u2013 me\u00f0 \u00feeim fyrirvara \u00fe\u00f3 a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lami\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0in heitir Tortola og er \u00ed Karab\u00edska hafinu. \u00dear geiga\u00f0i nokkru.<\/p>\n
Michael Lewis hj\u00e1 Vanity Fair er s\u00fdnilega betur uppl\u00fdstur en Harvard pr\u00f3fessorinn um st\u00f6\u00f0u m\u00e1la \u00e1 \u00cdslandi. Hann veit sem er a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 var einmitt \u00feessi frj\u00e1lshyggjutilraun me\u00f0 \u00cdsland sem kom \u00fev\u00ed \u00e1 vonarv\u00f6l. Uppbyggingarstarfi\u00f0 sem framundan er getur \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0eins tekist a\u00f0 \u00cdslendingar gerist a\u00f0ilar a\u00f0 myntsv\u00e6\u00f0i sem getur sta\u00f0i\u00f0 af s\u00e9r sj\u00e1lfsmor\u00f0s\u00e1r\u00e1sir frj\u00e1lshyggjukapitalismans.<\/p>\n
\u00cdrski fors\u00e6tisr\u00e1\u00f0herrann, Brian Cowen, skilur \u00feetta a\u00f0 fenginni reynslu. \u00dea\u00f0 var margt sameiginlegt me\u00f0 \u00cdrlandi og \u00cdslandi \u00ed uppsveiflunni: \u00d6r hagv\u00f6xtur, innstreymi erlends fj\u00e1rmagns, v\u00f6xtur fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastofnana, eignaver\u00f0b\u00f3ga og fasteignab\u00f3la. Einstaka fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastofnanir ri\u00f0a til falls. \u00cdrar standa n\u00fa frammi fyrir samdr\u00e6tti \u00ed efnahagsl\u00edfinu og vaxandi atvinnuleysi. Allt er \u00feetta kunnuglegt. En \u00f6fugt vi\u00f0 \u00cdsland er \u00cdrland ekki hruni\u00f0. \u201cSerious \u2013 but not fatal,\u201d alvarlegt en ekki banv\u00e6nt er l\u00fdsingin \u00e1 \u00e1standinu \u00ed lei\u00f0ara Irish Times. E\u00f0a hva\u00f0 sag\u00f0i \u00edrski fors\u00e6tisr\u00e1\u00f0herrann aftur: \u201cGu\u00f0i s\u00e9 lof a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00cdrar erum \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og h\u00f6fum evruna a\u00f0 gjaldmi\u00f0li. Ella v\u00e6ri tr\u00falega jafnh\u00f6rmulega fyrir okkur komi\u00f0 og \u00cdslandi.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Vegna umm\u00e6la Ragnars Arnalds \u00ed \u00fe\u00e6tti Hj\u00e1lmars Sveinssonar, – Krossg\u00f6tur – sem fluttur var \u00ed r\u00edkis\u00fatvarpinu eftir h\u00e1degi \u00ed dag, og \u00e9g t\u00f3k \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed, langar mig til a\u00f0 endurbirta hluta \u00far grein sem \u00e9g skrifa\u00f0i fyrir meira en m\u00e1nu\u00f0i um amer\u00edska frj\u00e1lshyggjuhagfr\u00e6\u00f0inginn, Kenneth Rogoff, sem Ragnar Heimss\u00fdnarforma\u00f0ur vitna\u00f0i \u00ed s\u00e9r til halds og trausts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1194"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2851,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194\/revisions\/2851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}