D\u00e6mi um \u00f3l\u00edkan m\u00e1lflutning af \u00feessu tagi \u2013 kort\u00e9ri fyrir kosningar \u2013 eru annars vegar bjarts\u00fdnisbo\u00f0skapur vi\u00f0skiptar\u00e1\u00f0herrans \u00ed Mbl. \u00e1 sumardaginn fyrsta, \u00fear sem hann bo\u00f0a\u00f0i skj\u00f3ta endurreisn; og hins vegar forsp\u00e1 formanns Frams\u00f3knarflokksins um yfirvofandi anna\u00f0 hrun. Vi\u00f0 munum \u00f6rugglega f\u00e1 a\u00f0 vita, hvor hefur r\u00e9tt fyrir s\u00e9r \u2013 eftir kosningnar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hvers vegna er Gylfi svona bjarts\u00fdnn? Hann bendir \u00e1 a\u00f0 \u00f3b\u00e6rilegar skuldir fyrirt\u00e6kja, a\u00f0allega g\u00f6mlu bankanna, eru n\u00fa kr\u00f6fur \u00e1 \u00ferotab\u00fa, sem munu hverfa, \u00feegar \u00ferotab\u00fain hafa veri\u00f0 ger\u00f0 upp. Allar \u00feessar skuldir muni \u00fev\u00ed falla \u00e1 erlenda l\u00e1nadrottna, einkum evr\u00f3pska banka, \u00fe.e. skuldir umfram eignir.<\/p>\n
\u00dear me\u00f0 eru \u00cdslendingar, \u00f6fugt vi\u00f0 margar a\u00f0rar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir, eins og t.d. Bandar\u00edkjamenn, lausir vi\u00f0 f\u00e1rsj\u00fakt fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakerfi, sem \u00feurfi a\u00f0 halda uppi me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 d\u00e6la \u00ed botnlausa h\u00edt \u00feess peningum skattborgara. Vandam\u00e1lin v\u00e6ru \u00fear me\u00f0 skilin eftir i \u00ferotab\u00faum hruninna fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastofnana.\u00deess vegna, segir Gylfi, eru \u00cdslendingar \u00ed \u00feeirri \u201c\u00f6fundsver\u00f0u\u201d st\u00f6\u00f0u a\u00f0 geta komist \u00fat \u00far fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakreppunni fyrr en \u00fe\u00e6r \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir, sem sitja \u00e1fram uppi me\u00f0 sj\u00fakt fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakerfi.<\/p>\n
Hva\u00f0 er ma\u00f0urinn a\u00f0 segja? Hann er a\u00f0 tala um l\u00e1n \u00ed \u00f3l\u00e1ni. Hann er a\u00f0 segja a\u00f0 hruni\u00f0 hafi, \u00fer\u00e1tt fyrir allt, veri\u00f0 dulb\u00fain blessun. \u00deetta r\u00edmar vi\u00f0 peningam\u00e1lahagfr\u00e6\u00f0i Dav\u00ed\u00f0s Oddssonar og heimatr\u00fabo\u00f0sins \u00ed se\u00f0labankanum, sem lofar og pr\u00edsar \u00edslensku kr\u00f3nuna, af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er alveg sama hversu illa er fyrir okkur er komi\u00f0 \u2013 vi\u00f0 getum alltaf redda\u00f0 okkur me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 fella gengi\u00f0. Gengisfellingar eru m.\u00f6.o. heillar\u00e1\u00f0 og hrun bankakerfisins \u201ca blessing in disguise.\u201d \u00deetta er eins og fengi\u00f0 a\u00f0 l\u00e1ni beint \u00fat \u00far leikh\u00fasi f\u00e1r\u00e1nleikans, t.d. fr\u00e1 Dario Fo, sem spann sprenghl\u00e6gilegan farsa \u00fat fr\u00e1 \u00fevers\u00f6gninni um, a\u00f0 \u00feeim mun verra sem \u00e1standi\u00f0 v\u00e6ri, \u00feeim mun betra yr\u00f0i \u00fea\u00f0…<\/p>\n
Bjarts\u00fdni Gylfa byggist \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 hinir erlendu kr\u00f6fuhafar \u2013 b\u00e6verskir bankastj\u00f3rar og belg\u00edskir sparisj\u00f3\u00f0ir \u2013 muni m\u00f6glunarlaust borga br\u00fasann. \u00deeir t\u00f3ku j\u00fa \u00fe\u00e1 \u00e1h\u00e6ttu a\u00f0 l\u00e1na \u00edslensku b\u00f6nkunum offj\u00e1r (tv\u00f6falt \u00ferotab\u00fa Enron) \u00e1 v\u00e6gum kj\u00f6rum. M\u00e1ttu \u00feeir ekki vita betur? T\u00f3ku \u00feeir ekki \u00e1h\u00e6ttuna vitandi vits? H\u00f6f\u00f0u \u00feeir ekki veri\u00f0 vara\u00f0ir vi\u00f0? Er ekki r\u00e9tt m\u00e1tulegt, a\u00f0 \u00feeir taki aflei\u00f0ingum ger\u00f0a sinna? En \u00e6tli \u00feetta s\u00e9 alveg svona einfalt?<\/p>\n
\u00cd Mogga \u00ed dag (24.04.09) birtist grein um sama efni, \u00fear sem kafa\u00f0 er talsvert d\u00fdpra undir yfirbor\u00f0i\u00f0. H\u00f6fundurinn heitir J\u00f3n J\u00f3nsson og er kynntur \u00feannig a\u00f0 hann hafi \u201cstarfa\u00f0 hj\u00e1 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legum fj\u00e1rfestingarbanka \u00ed \u00feremur heims\u00e1lfum og (lifa\u00f0 af ) fj\u00f3rar lausafj\u00e1rkreppur.\u201d Hva\u00f0 leggur hann til m\u00e1lanna? Hann segir a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 eigum l\u00edf okkar undir \u00fev\u00ed komi\u00f0, hvernig uppgj\u00f6ri milli g\u00f6mlu og n\u00fdju bankanna ver\u00f0i haga\u00f0. Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0leg matsfyrirt\u00e6ki (Standard and Poor\u00b4s, etc.) munu a\u00f0 lokum leggja d\u00f3m \u00e1 ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0una me\u00f0 l\u00e1nsh\u00e6fismati og \u00farskur\u00f0um um skuldatryggingar\u00e1lag til n\u00fdju bankanna.<\/p>\n
Ef matsfyrirt\u00e6kin l\u00e6kka mati\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur \u00ed \u201c\u00f3fj\u00e1rfestingarh\u00e6fan\u201d flokk, \u00fe\u00e1 er n\u00fdtt hrun yfirvofandi. H\u00f6fum hugfast a\u00f0 n\u00fdju bankarnir eru \u00ed r\u00edkiseign og \u00fe.a.l. me\u00f0 r\u00edkis\u00e1byrg\u00f0. Fj\u00e1rmunir skattgrei\u00f0enda eru \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 ve\u00f0i. Ef allt fer \u00e1 versta veg, mun gengi kr\u00f3nunnar ekki \u00feola \u00fea\u00f0 \u00e1lag. Vi\u00f0 vitum hva\u00f0a aflei\u00f0ingar n\u00fdtt gengishrap hefur vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 fyrra gengishrap hefur \u00feegar tv\u00f6falda\u00f0 skuldir okkar. \u00c9g b\u00fd\u00f0 ekki \u00ed \u00fea\u00f0, ef s\u00fa saga endurtekur sig.<\/p>\n
\u00deetta \u00f6rlagar\u00edka uppgj\u00f6r milli g\u00f6mlu og n\u00fdju bankanna er best var\u00f0veitta r\u00edkisleyndarm\u00e1l \u00cdslands. \u00derotab\u00fa g\u00f6mlu bankanna h\u00fdsir b\u00e6\u00f0i eignir og skuldir. Vi\u00f0 venjuleg skuldaskil \u00ed \u00ferotab\u00fai myndu kr\u00f6fuhafar f\u00e1 \u00ed sinn hlut \u00fea\u00f0 sem sala eigna skilar upp \u00ed skuldir, allt samkv\u00e6mt jafnr\u00e6\u00f0isreglu. \u00dea\u00f0 m\u00e1 ekki mismuna kr\u00f6fuh\u00f6fum a\u00f0 ge\u00f0\u00fe\u00f3tta. \u00dea\u00f0 mun \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0a l\u00f6gs\u00f3kn og m\u00e1laferli n\u00e6stu \u00e1ratugi.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 fl\u00e6kir m\u00e1li\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00e1 grundvelli ney\u00f0arlaga t\u00f3k \u00edslenska r\u00edki\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 sem \u00fev\u00ed \u00fe\u00f3tti n\u00fdtilegt \u00far \u00feroptab\u00fai g\u00f6mlu bankanna og f\u00e6r\u00f0i yfir til n\u00fdju bankanna. \u00deetta \u00e1 vi\u00f0 t.d. um innl\u00e1n sparifj\u00e1reigenda (sem eru r\u00edkistrygg\u00f0) og \u00fatl\u00e1nas\u00f6fn. L\u00f6gfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar hafa sitthva\u00f0 a\u00f0 athuga vi\u00f0 \u00feessar a\u00f0farir r\u00edkisins. Vi\u00f0 erum \u00e1rei\u00f0anlega ekki b\u00fain a\u00f0 b\u00edta \u00far n\u00e1linni me\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0.<\/p>\n
\u00dear fyrir utan er m\u00f6rgum spurningum \u00f3svara\u00f0. Hversu st\u00f3rir eru n\u00fdju bankarnir \u00ed hlutfalli vi\u00f0 r\u00fdrnandi \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arframlei\u00f0slu? \u00deetta eru r\u00edkisbankar. Eru \u00feeir eftir sem \u00e1\u00f0ur ekki of st\u00f3rir \u2013 \u00fe.e. of \u00e1h\u00e6ttusamir \u2013 fyrir \u00edslenska se\u00f0labankann (sem var\u00f0 gjald\u00ferota \u00ed hruninu) og skattgrei\u00f0endur til a\u00f0 \u00e1byrgjast? Hvernig eru eignas\u00f6fnin, sem n\u00fdju bankarnir yfirt\u00f3ku?<\/p>\n
Eru innlendar skuldir \u00edslenskra fyrirt\u00e6kja allar hj\u00e1 n\u00fdju b\u00f6nkunum? Eru ekki 60-70% \u00edslenskra fyrirt\u00e6kja t\u00e6knilega gjald\u00ferota? Voru innheimtul\u00f6gfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar ekki a\u00f0 sp\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed um daginn, a\u00f0 t\u00edu fyrirt\u00e6ki f\u00e6ru \u00e1 hausinn \u00e1 dag, \u00fat \u00e1ri\u00f0? Hvernig er me\u00f0 ve\u00f0in, sem g\u00f6mlu bankarnir t\u00f3ku \u00ed \u00f3veiddum fiski \u00ed sj\u00f3, fyrir rausnarlegum l\u00e1num til kv\u00f3tabraskaranna? Eru ekki sj\u00e1var\u00fatvegsfyrirt\u00e6kin sokkin \u00ed skuldir? Skulda \u00feau ekki meira en sem svarar tv\u00f6f\u00f6ldum \u00e1rstekjum s\u00ednum?<\/p>\n
*****<\/p>\n
\u00deessar spurningar vekja upp enn\u00fe\u00e1 fleiri spurningar sem kalla \u00e1 sv\u00f6r: Sitja ekki n\u00fdju bankarnir uppi me\u00f0 l\u00e9leg \u00fatl\u00e1nas\u00f6fn? Munu n\u00fdju bankarnir ekki \u00feurfa a\u00f0 afskrifa skuldir \u00ed st\u00f3rum st\u00edl? Hversu mikil ver\u00f0a \u00fatl\u00e1nat\u00f6pin? Er l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0leg matsfyrirt\u00e6ki gefi svona b\u00f6nkum g\u00f3\u00f0 l\u00e1nsh\u00e6fisvottor\u00f0? E\u00f0a er l\u00edklegra a\u00f0 n\u00fdju bankarnir sitji uppi me\u00f0 \u00ed\u00feyngjandi skuldatryggingar\u00e1l\u00f6g? Er ekki l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 r\u00f6kstudd gagnr\u00fdni erlendra kr\u00f6fuhafa kunni a\u00f0 hafa nokkur \u00e1hrif \u00e1 l\u00e1nsh\u00e6fismati\u00f0?<\/p>\n
Er l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 se\u00f0labanki l\u00e6kki st\u00fdrivexti s\u00edna gagnvart vi\u00f0skiptab\u00f6nkum sem hv\u00edla \u00e1 svo \u00f3traustum grunni? Ef l\u00e1nsh\u00e6fismati\u00f0 \u00fatilokar l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1r\u00f6flun erlendis og erlenda fj\u00e1rfestingu og vaxtastigi\u00f0 heldur \u00e1fram a\u00f0 sj\u00faga \u00fea\u00f0 litla eigi\u00f0 f\u00e9, sem eftir er \u00ed \u00edslenskum fyrirt\u00e6kjum, – hva\u00f0 er \u00fe\u00e1 framundan? \u00c9g l\u00e6t lesendum eftir a\u00f0 svara \u00fev\u00ed , hverjum fyrir sig. Eitt er v\u00edst: Endanleg sv\u00f6r munu liggja fyrir n\u00f3gu snemma \u2013 eftir kosningar.<\/p>\n