\u00deegar vi\u00f0 l\u00fdsum v\u00e6ntingum af \u00feessu tagi, f\u00e1um vi\u00f0 venjulega \u00fea\u00f0 svar, a\u00f0 \u00feetta s\u00e9u draum\u00f3rar um t\u00f6fralausnir. Sj\u00e1i\u00f0 bara hvernig \u00e1standi\u00f0 er \u00ed Austur-Evr\u00f3pu: Samdr\u00e1ttur \u00ed \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arframlei\u00f0slu, \u00feung skuldabyr\u00f0i og vaxandi atvinnuleysi. Samt eru \u00feessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandinu. Horfi\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00e1standi\u00f0 \u00ed Ungverjalandi sem d\u00e6mi. Ungverjaland samdi um inng\u00f6ngu \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandi\u00f0 \u00e1ri\u00f0 2004, en er eitt af ESB-r\u00edkjunum, sem standa fyrir utan evrusv\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ungverjar hafa sinn eigin gjaldmi\u00f0il, sem er bundinn vi\u00f0 evru, en me\u00f0 h\u00e1um vikm\u00f6rkum. Forintan getur \u00fev\u00ed sveiflast og er au\u00f0velt skotmark fyrir sp\u00e1kaupmenn, s\u00e9rstaklega af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 Ungverjar eru skuldugir. Hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingum ber saman um, a\u00f0 Ungverjum hafi heldur betur or\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00ed hagstj\u00f3rninni, r\u00e9tt eins og okkur. \u00dea\u00f0 er einkum tvennt sem fari\u00f0 hefur \u00farskei\u00f0is: \u00cd fyrsta lagi eru skuldir heimila og fyrirt\u00e6kja a\u00f0 mestu leyti \u00ed erlendum gjaldeyri. \u00dev\u00ed sem n\u00e6st \u00f6ll h\u00fasn\u00e6\u00f0isl\u00e1n eru \u00ed svissneskum fr\u00f6nkum. \u00deeir hafa \u00fev\u00ed broti\u00f0 fyrsta bo\u00f0or\u00f0i\u00f0 um a\u00f0g\u00e1t \u00ed skuldsetningu me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 taka l\u00e1n \u00ed \u00f6\u00f0rum gjaldmi\u00f0li en \u00feeim sem skilar tekjunum. Gengis\u00e1h\u00e6ttan var mikil. Grei\u00f0slubyr\u00f0i skulda hefur \u00feyngst verulega.<\/p>\n
\u00cd \u00f6\u00f0ru lagi hafa Ungverjar misst t\u00f6k \u00e1 r\u00edkisfj\u00e1rm\u00e1lum og ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgan hefur fari\u00f0 \u00far b\u00f6ndunum. Af \u00feessum \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0um hafa \u00feeir ekki geta\u00f0 uppfyllt skilyr\u00f0in um uppt\u00f6ku evru. \u00deessi mist\u00f6k koma \u00feeim n\u00fa \u00ed koll. \u00deeir leita n\u00fa helst samanbur\u00f0ar vi\u00f0 grannr\u00edki s\u00edn, Sl\u00f3vak\u00edu og Sl\u00f3ven\u00edu. \u00deessar tv\u00e6r sm\u00e1\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir nj\u00f3ta \u00feess n\u00fa a\u00f0 hafa haldi\u00f0 uppi aga\u00f0ri hagstj\u00f3rn og uppfyllt skilyr\u00f0in um uppt\u00f6ku evru. \u00deessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir eru b\u00e1\u00f0ar var\u00f0ar fyrir \u00e1hlaupi sp\u00e1kaupmanna. \u00de\u00e6r hafa ekki or\u00f0i\u00f0 fyrir gjaldmi\u00f0ilshruni. \u00deessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir eru miklu betur staddar en hinar, sem sitja uppi me\u00f0 h\u00e6kkandi skuldir \u00ed erlendum gjaldmi\u00f0lum.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er svo l\u00e1n \u00ed \u00f3l\u00e1ni, t.d. fyrir b\u00e6\u00f0i Letta og Ungverja, a\u00f0 bankakerfi\u00f0 er a\u00f0 mestu \u00ed eigu \u00fatlendinga. Sem d\u00e6mi m\u00e1 nefna a\u00f0 velta austurr\u00edskra banka \u00ed Ungverjalandi er talin nema um 80% af landsframlei\u00f0slu Austurr\u00edkismanna. Ef gengisfall eigin gjaldmi\u00f0ils veldur grei\u00f0slufalli ungverskra skuldunauta, g\u00e6tu aflei\u00f0ingarnar or\u00f0i\u00f0 bankahrun \u00ed Austurr\u00edki. Hva\u00f0 segir \u00feetta okkur? \u00deetta merkir a\u00f0 peninga- og gjaldmi\u00f0ilsm\u00e1l einstakra a\u00f0ilda\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a Evr\u00f3pusambandsins, er ekki bara \u00feeirra m\u00e1l, heldur Evr\u00f3pusambandsins \u00ed heild. \u00deetta er kerfisvandi. \u00dea\u00f0 er a\u00f0eins ein lausn \u00e1 \u00feessum vanda. H\u00fan er s\u00fa a\u00f0 allar a\u00f0ilda\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir Evr\u00f3pusambandsins taki upp evru.<\/p>\n
Sannleikurinn er s\u00e1 a\u00f0 heimskreppan hefur n\u00fa \u00feegar kollvarpa\u00f0 \u00feeim forsendum, sem hinga\u00f0 til hafa veri\u00f0 lag\u00f0ar til grundvallar evrusamstarfinu. Hva\u00f0a skilyr\u00f0um hafa \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir hinga\u00f0 til \u00feurft a\u00f0 fulln\u00e6gja til a\u00f0 f\u00e1 inng\u00f6ngu \u00ed evrusv\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0? Skilyr\u00f0in sn\u00faast um trausta st\u00f6\u00f0u r\u00edkisfj\u00e1rm\u00e1la, takmarka\u00f0a skuldas\u00f6fnun, l\u00e1ga ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu og vexti og gengisst\u00f6\u00f0ugleika. Vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0 flestra \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a vi\u00f0 samdr\u00e1ttar\u00e1hrifum kreppunnar kollvarpa flestum ef ekki \u00f6llum \u00feessum skilyr\u00f0um.<\/p>\n
Hver voru r\u00e1\u00f0 Keynes gegn kreppunni? Fyrsta bo\u00f0or\u00f0 var a\u00f0 \u00f6rva efnahagsl\u00edfi\u00f0 me\u00f0 hallarekstri og skuldas\u00f6fnun. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00e1 a\u00f0 prenta peninga \u2013 auka peningamagn \u00ed umfer\u00f0 \u2013 og auka l\u00e1nsfj\u00e1rframbo\u00f0 me\u00f0 l\u00e6kkun vaxta. H\u00e6ttan sem blasir vi\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um Evr\u00f3pu jafnt sem \u00f6\u00f0rum \u00ed kreppunni er ekki ver\u00f0b\u00f3lga \u2013 heldur ver\u00f0hj\u00f6\u00f0nun. Ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguskilyr\u00f0in eru \u00fev\u00ed \u00farelt. Og \u00fea\u00f0 n\u00e6r ekki lengur neinni \u00e1tt a\u00f0 \u00e6tla a\u00f0 halda ums\u00f3knar\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um um a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 evrusv\u00e6\u00f0inu \u00ed eins konar bi\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0u peningam\u00e1lasamstarfsins (ERM-1), \u00fear sem gjaldmi\u00f0lar \u00feeirra eru hj\u00e1lparvana skotm\u00f6rk spek\u00falanta, \u00ed gengis- og vaxtamunarbraski, eins og tifandi t\u00edmasprengjur. \u00deetta gengur gegn grundvallarreglu peningam\u00e1lasamstarfsins um ver\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0uleika.<\/p>\n
Hver er lausnin? H\u00fan er \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed f\u00f3lgin a\u00f0 endursko\u00f0a \u00farelta skilm\u00e1la fyrir \u00fe\u00e1ttt\u00f6ku \u00ed peningam\u00e1lasamstarfi Evr\u00f3pusambandsr\u00edkja. Tilgangurinn me\u00f0 evrusamstarfinu er a\u00f0 draga \u00far \u00e1h\u00e6ttu og festa st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika \u00ed sessi. Heimskreppan \u00f3gnar n\u00fa hvoru tveggja markmi\u00f0inu. \u00deess vegna \u00e1 a\u00f0 endursko\u00f0a skilyr\u00f0in \u00ed lj\u00f3si gerbreyttra a\u00f0st\u00e6\u00f0na.<\/p>\n
\u00cd lj\u00f3si alls \u00feessa m\u00e1 lj\u00f3st vera a\u00f0 tafarlaus ums\u00f3kn okkar \u00cdslendinga um a\u00f0ildarvi\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0ur \u00e1 l\u00edka, \u00ed lj\u00f3si gerbreyttra a\u00f0st\u00e6\u00f0na, a\u00f0 sn\u00faast um lei\u00f0ir til a\u00f0 hra\u00f0a \u00fe\u00e1ttt\u00f6ku \u00cdslands \u00ed evrusamstarfinu. \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki s\u00edst \u00feess vegna sem samningavi\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0ur vi\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandi\u00f0 eru \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ingarmikill \u00fe\u00e1ttur \u00ed leit a\u00f0 lausn \u00e1 br\u00e1\u00f0avanda \u00cdslendinga: V\u00f6ntun \u00e1 gegngisst\u00f6\u00f0ugleika og traustum gjaldmi\u00f0li. \u00deetta hvort tveggja er grundvallarforsenda fyrir endurreisn efnahagsl\u00edfsins eftir hrun. \u00deetta eru sameiginlegir hagsmunir allra ums\u00f3knar\u00edkja a\u00f0 evrusamstarfinu.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Erum vi\u00f0 ekki flest samm\u00e1la um \u00fea\u00f0, a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 n\u00e1um okkur seint \u00e1 strik aftur, nema me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 f\u00e1 afnot af gjaldmi\u00f0li sem dugar \u00ed vi\u00f0skiptum, innan lands og utan? Er ekki lex\u00edan, sem vi\u00f0 \u00feurfum a\u00f0 l\u00e6ra af hruninu s\u00fa, a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 komumst ekki af \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 hafa starfh\u00e6ft bankakerfi, st\u00f6\u00f0ugt gengi, traustan gjaldmi\u00f0il og l\u00e1ga vexti? Er \u00fea\u00f0 ekki \u00feetta sem rekur \u00e1 eftir okkur a\u00f0 s\u00e6kja um a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og a\u00f0 taka upp evru? Vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum fengi\u00f0 okkur fulls\u00f6dd af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 vera leiksoppar \u00ed fj\u00e1rh\u00e6ttuspili. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1201"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1201\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2841,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1201\/revisions\/2841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}