A\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed er var\u00f0ar fiskvei\u00f0il\u00f6gs\u00f6gu \u00cdslands ver\u00f0ur samningsmarkmi\u00f0i\u00f0 a\u00f0 gera hana a\u00f0 s\u00e9rst\u00f6ku fiskvei\u00f0istj\u00f3rnunarsv\u00e6\u00f0i. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir s\u00e9rlausn skv. ford\u00e6mi, en ekki undan\u00fe\u00e1gu fr\u00e1 CFP. \u00deetta samningsmarkmi\u00f0 sty\u00f0st vi\u00f0 \u00feau meginr\u00f6k a\u00f0 h\u00e9r s\u00e9 um a\u00f0 r\u00e6\u00f0a br\u00fdna \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arhagsmuni (e. vital national interest). \u00deessi tillaga er au\u00f0veld \u00ed framkv\u00e6md, af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00edslenska fiskvei\u00f0il\u00f6gsagan er algerlega a\u00f0skilin fr\u00e1 sameiginlegri fiskvei\u00f0il\u00f6gs\u00f6gu ESB r\u00edkja. Um \u00feetta er vandr\u00e6\u00f0alaust a\u00f0 semja af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 me\u00f0 till\u00f6gunni er ekkert teki\u00f0 af vi\u00f0semjandanum, n\u00e9 heldur sett fram krafa um aukin r\u00e9ttindi okkur til handa fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed sem er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
S\u00fa sta\u00f0reynd, a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambands\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir hfa engan s\u00f6gulegan r\u00e9tt til vei\u00f0a innan \u00edslensku l\u00f6gs\u00f6gunnar au\u00f0veldar enn frekar \u00feessa samningsni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u. \u00der\u00e1tt fyrir tilvitnun \u00fe\u00edna \u00ed \u201cgr\u00e6nu b\u00f3kina\u201d eru engar l\u00edkur \u00e1, a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 endursko\u00f0un CFP, sem framundan er, ver\u00f0i falli\u00f0 fr\u00e1 grundvallarreglunni um hlutfallslegan st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika (e. relative stability). \u00de\u00e6r \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir sem \u00ed hlut eiga, munu ekki fallast \u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0. A\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed er okkur var\u00f0ar, er reglan um hlutfallslegan st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika eins konar varadekk. \u00c1 hana mun ekki reyna, einfaldlega vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 a\u00f0rar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir eiga engan s\u00f6gulegan r\u00e9tt til vei\u00f0a innan l\u00f6gs\u00f6gunnar. Framkv\u00e6md \u00feessarar reglu, a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed er var\u00f0ar vei\u00f0ar vi\u00f0komandi ESB \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a \u00far sameiginlegum stofnum og af sameiginlegu hafsv\u00e6\u00f0i, er \u00fe.a.l. okkur \u00f3vi\u00f0komandi.
\n2.
\n\u00de\u00fa segir, a\u00f0 me\u00f0 a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 EMU og uppt\u00f6ku evru muni vandi okkar birtast \u00ed miklu atvinnuleysi, \u00ed sta\u00f0 \u00feess a\u00f0 birtast \u00ed himinh\u00e1um v\u00f6xtum e\u00f0a gengissveiflum \u2013 og spyr\u00f0, hvor kosturinn er betri? Af hverju segir \u00fe\u00fa \u201c\u00ed sta\u00f0 \u00feess\u201d? Vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum allt \u00ed senn: Himinh\u00e1a vexti, gengissveiflur, fj\u00f6ldagjald\u00ferot fyrirt\u00e6kja og miki\u00f0 atvinnuleysi. Sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0 peningam\u00e1lastj\u00f3rn me\u00f0 eigin gjaldmi\u00f0li hefur ekki komi\u00f0 \u00ed veg fyrir \u00fea\u00f0. Vali\u00f0 stendur \u00fev\u00ed auglj\u00f3slega ekki milli \u00feess, annars vegar a\u00f0 hafa eigin peningam\u00e1lastj\u00f3rn og l\u00edti\u00f0 atvinnuleysi, e\u00f0a hins vegar taka upp evru og f\u00e1 miki\u00f0 atvinnuleysi. Spurningin er um \u00fea\u00f0, hvort st\u00f6\u00f0ugleiki og l\u00e1gir vextir geti au\u00f0velda\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6kjum \u00e1 \u00cdslandi a\u00f0 skapa n\u00fd (og ver\u00f0m\u00e6t) st\u00f6rf \u00ed framt\u00ed\u00f0inni, fremur en \u00f3breytt \u00e1stand me\u00f0 \u00f3fyrirsj\u00e1anlegum gengissveiflum og ofurv\u00f6xtum. \u00c6tlum vi\u00f0 ekkert a\u00f0 l\u00e6ra af hruninu?
\n3.
\n\u00de\u00fa sl\u00e6r\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed f\u00f6stu, a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 s\u00e9 = merki milli a\u00f0ildar a\u00f0 ESB og atvinnuleysis. \u00de\u00fa gengur svo langt a\u00f0 segja, a\u00f0 evran s\u00e9 \u201ctrygging fyrir verulegu atvinnuleysi \u00e1 ja\u00f0arsv\u00e6\u00f0um\u201d. \u00deetta kemur ekki heim og saman vi\u00f0 sta\u00f0reyndir. Nor\u00f0url\u00f6ndin eru ja\u00f0arsv\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed ESB. Um mi\u00f0jna s\u00ed\u00f0asta \u00e1ratug (1995) bjuggu \u00feau \u00f6ll vi\u00f0 h\u00e1tt atvinnuleysisstig. \u00c1ri\u00f0 2007, seinasta heila \u00e1ri\u00f0 fyrir heimskreppu, h\u00f6f\u00f0u \u00feau \u00f6ll minnka\u00f0 atvinnuleysi verulega. T\u00f6lurnar eru \u00feessar: (1) Dan. \u00far 10.3% \u00ed 3.4%, (2) Fin \u00far 15.2% \u00ed 6.8%, (3) Sv\u00ed \u00far 10.1% \u00ed 3.5%. \u00deessi d\u00e6mi duga til a\u00f0 s\u00fdna fram \u00e1, a\u00f0 ja\u00f0arr\u00edki \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandinu hafa n\u00e1\u00f0 umtalsver\u00f0um \u00e1rangri \u00ed sk\u00f6pun starfa og \u00fatr\u00fdmingu atvinnuleysis. \u00deetta \u00e1 m.a.s l\u00edka vi\u00f0 um l\u00f6nd eins og Sp\u00e1n og \u00cdtal\u00edu, sem b\u00e1\u00f0um t\u00f3kst a\u00f0 minnka atvinnuleysi um helming \u00e1 \u00e1runum 1995-2007: Sp\u00e1nn \u00far 20.3% \u00ed 9.2%; \u00cdal\u00eda \u00far 11.3% \u00ed 6.1%. Holland hefur n\u00e1\u00f0 eftirtektarver\u00f0um \u00e1rangri \u00ed bar\u00e1ttunni gegn atvinnuleysi. S\u00f6mulei\u00f0is sm\u00e1\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir eins og Sl\u00f3vak\u00eda og Sl\u00f3ven\u00eda, sem \u00f3l\u00edkt \u00f6\u00f0rum \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um \u00ed Mi\u00f0- og Austur-Evr\u00f3pu fulln\u00e6g\u00f0u innt\u00f6kuskilyr\u00f0um evrusamstarfsins. Fullyr\u00f0ing \u00fe\u00edn: Evrusamstarf = atvinnuleysi stenst \u00fev\u00ed ekki n\u00e1nari sko\u00f0un.
\n4.
\nAllar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir ver\u00f0a, \u00fe\u00f3tt \u00ed mismunandi m\u00e6li s\u00e9, fyrir bar\u00f0inu \u00e1 heimskreppunni. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00f3hj\u00e1kv\u00e6mileg aflei\u00f0ing af samdr\u00e6tti \u00ed eftirspurn, framlei\u00f0slu og fj\u00e1rfestingum. Spurningarnar sem vi\u00f0 st\u00f6ndum frammi fyrir eru t.d.: Hva\u00f0a \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir fara verst \u00fat \u00far kreppunni? Hvort fara \u00fe\u00e6r \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir betur \u00fat \u00far kreppunni, sem eru innan evrusv\u00e6\u00f0isins e\u00f0a utan? Hvernig fara \u00fe\u00e6r \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir \u00fat \u00far kreppunni, sem b\u00faa vi\u00f0 eigin (veikbur\u00f0a) gjaldmi\u00f0il og eru um lei\u00f0 mj\u00f6g skuldsettar? \u00dear sem botni kreppunnar er ekki n\u00e1\u00f0, held \u00e9g a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00e6ttum a\u00f0 b\u00ed\u00f0a \u00e1tekta me\u00f0 a\u00f0 kve\u00f0a upp endanlega d\u00f3ma. Einu getum vi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00f3 slegi\u00f0 f\u00f6stu: \u00cdsland hefur hinga\u00f0 til fari\u00f0 verst \u00fat \u00far \u00feessu. Ekkert anna\u00f0 land hefur or\u00f0i\u00f0 jafnheiftarlega fyrir hvoru tveggja, bankahruni og gjaldmi\u00f0ilshruni. Vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum heldur ekki biti\u00f0 \u00far n\u00e1linni me\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0, hvort vi\u00f0 eigum jafnvel verra \u00ed v\u00e6ndum. Vi\u00f0 skulum \u00fev\u00ed b\u00ed\u00f0a me\u00f0 endanlega d\u00f3ma um sinn.
\n5.
\n\u00c9g benti \u00e1 \u00fe\u00e1 \u00fevers\u00f6gn, a\u00f0 gegnishrun er b\u00f6l, en aflei\u00f0ingin \u2013 l\u00e1ggengi \u2013 kann a\u00f0 reynast vera b\u00f3nus, ef vi\u00f0 komumst fyrr \u00e1 lappirnar aftur fyrir viki\u00f0. \u00deegar vi\u00f0 hugsum til framt\u00ed\u00f0ar, s\u00fdnist m\u00e9r hins vegar a\u00f0 veigameiri r\u00f6k sty\u00f0ji \u00fea\u00f0 sj\u00f3narmi\u00f0, a\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0ugleikinn sem fylgir myntsamstarfi, vegi \u00feyngra vi\u00f0 uppbyggingu atvinnuskapandi fyrirt\u00e6kja heldur en sveigjanleiki \u00ed gengi. T\u00ed\u00f0ar gengisfellingar \u00ed litlu hagkerfi, sem er h\u00e1\u00f0 innflutningi, hafa vi\u00f0varandi ver\u00f0b\u00f3lgu\u00e1hrif (gengisfelling er \u00ed e\u00f0li s\u00ednu skammt\u00edmaa\u00f0ger\u00f0) og kippa grundvellinum undan uppbyggingu n\u00fdrra atvinnuvega, sem ver\u00f0a a\u00f0 vera samkeppnisf\u00e6rir \u00e1 al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legan m\u00e6likvar\u00f0a til \u00feess a\u00f0 skapa \u00feau st\u00f6rf, sem vi\u00f0 erum a\u00f0 mennta \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ina fyrir. \u00c9g gef l\u00edti\u00f0 fyrir p\u00f3lit\u00edk, sem er ekkert anna\u00f0 en skammt\u00edmareddingar. P\u00f3lit\u00edk \u00fearf a\u00f0 byggja \u00e1 framt\u00ed\u00f0ars\u00fdn til \u00feess a\u00f0 skila \u00e1rangri fyrir f\u00f3lk. Gengisfellingalei\u00f0in er \u00farelt, tilheyrir ver\u00f6ld sem var og samr\u00fdmist ekki langt\u00edma vaxtarskilyr\u00f0um atvinnul\u00edfs \u00ed al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legu umhverfi.<\/p>\n
Heimskreppan \u00e1 millistr\u00ed\u00f0s\u00e1rum li\u00f0innar aldar var har\u00f0ur sk\u00f3li. H\u00fan leiddi til n\u00fdrrar heimsstyrjaldar. H\u00fan kollvarpa\u00f0i r\u00edkjandi r\u00e9tttr\u00fana\u00f0i \u00ed hagfr\u00e6\u00f0i og p\u00f3lit\u00edk. Upp \u00far \u00feeirri reynslu spratt mitt s\u00f3s\u00edaldem\u00f3krat\u00ed og tilraunin me\u00f0 hi\u00f0 norr\u00e6na og s\u00ed\u00f0ar meir hi\u00f0 evr\u00f3pska velfer\u00f0arr\u00edki. Hva\u00f0 mun \u00feessi kreppa kenna okkur? Hva\u00f0 getum vi\u00f0 af henni l\u00e6rt? Hugsum um \u00fea\u00f0.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
1.
\n\u00de\u00fa spyr\u00f0, hver s\u00e9 \u00e1s\u00e6ttanleg ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a a\u00f0 m\u00ednu mati um \u201cforr\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0 yfir au\u00f0lindunum?\u201d Svar: A\u00f0ildar\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir ESB hafa sj\u00e1lfar forr\u00e6\u00f0i yfir au\u00f0lindum s\u00ednum. \u00de\u00e6r r\u00e1\u00f0a sj\u00e1lfar eignarr\u00e9ttartilh\u00f6gun. Al\u00feingi hefur n\u00fa sam\u00feykkt till\u00f6gu til stj\u00f3rnskipunarlaga, sem l\u00fdsir au\u00f0lindirnar, \u00fe.m.t. fiskimi\u00f0in, sameign \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arinnar. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fear me\u00f0 \u201cnon-negotiable\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1206"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1206\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2838,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1206\/revisions\/2838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}