{"id":1303,"date":"2011-11-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.jbh.is\/?p=1303"},"modified":"2020-09-22T12:32:17","modified_gmt":"2020-09-22T12:32:17","slug":"fraegdin-ad-utan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/?p=1303","title":{"rendered":"FR\u00c6G\u00d0IN A\u00d0 UTAN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Martin Wolf hj\u00e1 Financial Times, klass\u00edskur breskur evruvafri (e. eurosceptic) h\u00e6ldi \u00cdslendingum fyrir a\u00f0 halda sig utan ESB og hallm\u00e6lti \u00feeim, sem vilja s\u00e6kja um a\u00f0ild. Hj\u00e1 Bretum hefur \u00feokan yfir Ermasundi\u00f0 l\u00f6ngum birgt s\u00fdn. N\u00f3belshagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingurinn Krugman er \u00e1 m\u00f3ti \u00fev\u00ed, r\u00e9tt eins og \u00e9g, a\u00f0 bjarga b\u00f6nkum \u00e1 kostna\u00f0 skattgrei\u00f0enda (gr\u00edsk-\u00edrska lei\u00f0in). Hann sag\u00f0i \u00fea\u00f0 til fyrirmyndar, a\u00f0 \u00edslensku bankarnir f\u00f3ru \u00e1 hausinn – og enginn f\u00e9kk gert vi\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed \u2013 af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00feeim var ekki vi\u00f0bjargandi (og a\u00f0 \u201e\u00dej\u00f3\u00f0verjar\u201c s\u00e1tu uppi me\u00f0 2\/3 af skuldunum).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Krugman virtist l\u00edka standa \u00ed \u00feeirri tr\u00fa, a\u00f0 \u201einnri gengisfelling\u201c (l\u00e6kkun launa og f\u00e9lagslegra \u00fatgjalda me\u00f0 handafli) \u00e1 la Eistland\/Lettland s\u00e9 s\u00e1rsaukafyllri en gengisfelling gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins \u00e1 la \u00cdsland, sem sannar \u00fea\u00f0 eitt, a\u00f0 jafnvel N\u00f3belsver\u00f0launahafar geta haft rangt fyrir s\u00e9r, ef \u00fe\u00e1 skortir r\u00e9ttar uppl\u00fdsingar.<\/p>\n

Vinurinn \u2013 sem til vamms sag\u00f0i<\/h2>\n

Willem Buiter (s\u00e1 sem vara\u00f0i \u00edslensk stj\u00f3rnv\u00f6ld vi\u00f0 yfirvofandi hruni snemma \u00e1rs 2008 \u2013 \u00e1n \u00feess \u00e1 hann v\u00e6ri hlusta\u00f0) var s\u00e1 eini, sem benti \u00e1, hva\u00f0 l\u00e6ra m\u00e6tti af mist\u00f6kum \u00cdslendinga vi\u00f0 endurreisn bankakerfisins. Vi\u00f0 hef\u00f0um \u00e1tt a\u00f0 vista st\u00f6kkbreytt og \u00f3kr\u00e6f l\u00e1n \u00ed innheimtustofnun r\u00edkisins (e. bad bank), svo a\u00f0 hinir endurreistu bankar g\u00e6tu gegnt hlutverki s\u00ednu, sem v\u00e6ri a\u00f0 l\u00e1na f\u00e9 til framkv\u00e6mda.<\/p>\n

Buiter sag\u00f0i, a\u00f0 enn v\u00e6ri t\u00edmi til a\u00f0 kippa \u00feessu \u00ed li\u00f0inn me\u00f0 afskriftum \u00e1 \u00f3n\u00fdtum l\u00e1num (e. toxic loans). Fyrr f\u00e6ri hagvaxtarv\u00e9lin (sk\u00f6pun starfa) ekki \u00ed gang. \u00deetta bl\u00edfur reyndar sem helsta ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a h\u00f3fsins. Voru\u00f0 \u00fei\u00f0 a\u00f0 hlusta, Steingr\u00edmur og \u00c1rni P\u00e1ll?<\/p>\n

En reyndar var \u00fea\u00f0 hi\u00f0 syfjulega g\u00e1fnalj\u00f3s, hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ipr\u00f3fessorinn vi\u00f0 H.\u00cd., Gylfi Zo\u00ebga, sem sl\u00f3 \u00f6llum hinum heimsfr\u00e6gu vi\u00f0 \u00e1 lokasprettinum. Hann lag\u00f0i sm\u00e1d\u00e6mi fyrir \u00fe\u00e1 Wolf & Krugman og f\u00e9laga \u2013 sem bo\u00f0u\u00f0u patentlausnir \u2013 og vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0in s\u00fdndu, a\u00f0 \u00feeir f\u00e9llu \u00e1 pr\u00f3finu.<\/p>\n

Hagfr\u00e6\u00f0i handa byrjendum<\/h2>\n

Gylfi sag\u00f0i: Finnar b\u00faa vi\u00f0 evru, en Sv\u00edar vi\u00f0 kr\u00f3nu. B\u00e1\u00f0ar komu \u00feessar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir hlutfallslega vel \u00fat \u00far kreppunni. \u00c1lyktun: Gjaldmi\u00f0illinn EINN og S\u00c9R skiptir ekki \u00d6LLU m\u00e1li um \u00e1rangur \u00ed hagstj\u00f3rn. Agi \u00ed r\u00edkisfj\u00e1rm\u00e1lum og fyrirhyggja \u00ed fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lastj\u00f3rn skiptir l\u00edka m\u00e1li.<\/p>\n

Anna\u00f0 d\u00e6mi, sem lei\u00f0ir til s\u00f6mu ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u: Eistar b\u00faa vi\u00f0 evru, en \u00cdslendingar vi\u00f0 (ver\u00f0tryggingar)kr\u00f3nu. B\u00e1\u00f0ar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir f\u00f3ru illa \u00fat \u00far kreppunni. En hvor er lengra komin \u00e1 batavegi? \u00cdslendingar (heimili og fyrirt\u00e6ki) \u00fej\u00e1st enn af \u00f3leystum skuldavanda, veikum hagvexti og \u00f3vissu \u00ed gjaldmi\u00f0ilsm\u00e1lum. Eistar eru lausir vi\u00f0 \u00feessa kvilla, erlendar fj\u00e1rfestingar streyma inn og hagv\u00f6xtur m\u00e6ldist 8.6% \u00e1 fyrri hluta \u00feessa \u00e1rs.<\/p>\n

\u00c1lyktun: Patentlausnin \u2013 sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0ur gjaldmi\u00f0ill, sem m\u00e1 gengisfella skv. p\u00f6ntun s\u00e9rhagsmunaa\u00f0ila – dugar ekki einn og s\u00e9r. Og Krugman m\u00e1 vita \u00fea\u00f0, a\u00f0 gengisfelling gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins er l\u00edka s\u00e1rsaukafullt me\u00f0al me\u00f0 miklum aukaverkunum fyrir skuldugt f\u00f3lk. Jafnvel l\u00edfsh\u00e6ttulegum.<\/p>\n

\u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf anna\u00f0 og meira en patentlausnir. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf \u00feekkingu, reynslu, aga og fyrirhyggju. Og vir\u00f0ingu fyrir sta\u00f0reyndum. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feetta, sem er af svo skornum skammti me\u00f0 vorri \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0. Gylfi haf\u00f0i r\u00e9tt fyrir s\u00e9r \u2013 og bar af \u00f6llum hinum.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hva\u00f0 getur umheimurinn l\u00e6rt af ford\u00e6mi \u00cdslands um \u00fea\u00f0, hvernig \u00e1 a\u00f0 vinna sig \u00fat \u00far kreppu, \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 sl\u00edta \u00ed sundur samf\u00e9lagsvefinn?<\/p>\n

\u00deetta var \u201e millj\u00f3ndollaraspurningin\u201c, sem heimsfr\u00e6gir hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar voru fengnir til a\u00f0 svara \u00ed H\u00f6rpunni (var h\u00fan ekki annars bygg\u00f0 fyrir Icesave-\u00fe\u00fdfi\u00f0 mestan part?) um daginn \u00ed kve\u00f0juh\u00f3fi IMF (AGS). \u00dea\u00f0 vakti athygli m\u00edna, a\u00f0 hver og einn hinna heimsfr\u00e6gu fann \u00fea\u00f0 helst til eftirbreytni, sem f\u00e9ll eins og fl\u00eds vi\u00f0 rass inn \u00ed fyrirfram m\u00f3ta\u00f0a mynd \u00feeirra sj\u00e1lfra um \u00fea\u00f0, hva\u00f0 b\u00e6ri a\u00f0 gera og hva\u00f0 \u00e6tti a\u00f0 for\u00f0ast. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1303"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1303\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2745,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1303\/revisions\/2745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}