H\u00e9r vi\u00f0 h\u00e1sk\u00f3lann \u00ed Tartu er s\u00e9rst\u00f6k stofnun (EURUS) – Euro-Russian Studies – sem f\u00e6st vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 rannsaka og uppl\u00fdsa um hr\u00e6ringar undir yfirbor\u00f0inu handan landam\u00e6ranna.
\n\u00dear leggja \u00e1 r\u00e1\u00f0in \u00fatlaga R\u00fassar og Hv\u00edtr\u00fassar me\u00f0 innf\u00e6ddum og Austur-Evr\u00f3pum\u00f6nnum af \u00fdmsum \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ernum – s\u00e9rtaklega P\u00f3lverjum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Af samt\u00f6lum vi\u00f0 hina s\u00e9rfr\u00f3\u00f0u a\u00f0 d\u00e6ma, heyrist m\u00e9r umr\u00e6\u00f0an sn\u00faast einkum um \u00ferennt: (1) Innri veikleika \u00dakra\u00ednu, (2) Vantr\u00fa \u00e1, a\u00f0 p\u00f3lit\u00edsk forysta Vesturlanda \u00feori, e\u00f0a geti, \u00fevinga\u00f0 fram fj\u00e1rhagslegar refsia\u00f0ger\u00f0ir gegn r\u00fassneskum\/\u00fakra\u00ednskum rummungs\u00fej\u00f3fum (\u00f3l\u00edg\u00f6rkum), nefnilega uppt\u00f6ku\/frystingu eigna og bankareikninga. (3) Hi\u00f0 \u00feri\u00f0ja er, a\u00f0 \u00f6fugt vi\u00f0 \u00dakra\u00ednu hafa Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0irnar \u00ferj\u00e1r n\u00fdtt t\u00edmann fr\u00e1 endurheimt sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0is (1991) til a\u00f0 baktryggja \u00fea\u00f0 me\u00f0 a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og NATO. \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0ars\u00e1tt um Evr\u00f3pusambandsa\u00f0ild \u00ed upphafi, \u00fevert \u00e1 flokkadr\u00e6tti, veitti stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1lam\u00f6nnum a\u00f0hald og aga, sem \u00feurfti til a\u00f0 byggja upp valddreift r\u00e9ttarr\u00edki og til a\u00f0 takast \u00e1 vi\u00f0 arfgenga spillingu.<\/p>\n
Fors\u00e6tisr\u00e1\u00f0herra \u00dakra\u00ednu \u00fer\u00e1bi\u00f0ur um, a\u00f0 forystumenn Vesturlanda gr\u00edpi til a\u00f0ger\u00f0a, sem hitti R\u00fassland \u00ed hjartasta\u00f0 \u2013 nefnilega \u00ed pyngjuna. \u00dearna er ekki veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 tala um sm\u00e1upph\u00e6\u00f0ir. \u00deessir \u00f3l\u00edgarkar treysta hvorki stj\u00f3rnv\u00f6ldum \u00ed Moskvu n\u00e9 Kyiv n\u00e9 gjaldmi\u00f0lum \u00feeirra. \u00deeir ryksuga ar\u00f0inn af au\u00f0lindum \u00feessara \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a og koma honum \u00far landi \u00ed skattaskj\u00f3l undir vernd Wall Street, City of London og Evr\u00f3pusambandsins. \u00de\u00fdfi\u00f0 er meti\u00f0 \u00e1 60-100 millljar\u00f0a dala \u00e1rlega fr\u00e1 R\u00fasslandi. Vi\u00f0 \u00feetta b\u00e6tist, a\u00f0 vi\u00f0skiptatengsl r\u00fassnesku \u00f3l\u00edgarkanna og \u00de\u00fdskalands eru s\u00e9rstaklega n\u00e1in.<\/p>\n
Ef \u00de\u00fdskaland mundi st\u00f6\u00f0va t\u00e6kni\u00fatflutning sinn til R\u00fasslands, mundi \u00fea\u00f0 gera r\u00fassneska hagkerfi\u00f0 \u00f3starfh\u00e6ft \u00e1 sk\u00f6mmum t\u00edma. \u00dea\u00f0 hefur enginn tr\u00fa \u00e1, a\u00f0 \u00de\u00fdskaland geri \u00fea\u00f0 til a\u00f0 sty\u00f0ja vi\u00f0 baki\u00f0 \u00e1 veikbur\u00f0a br\u00e1\u00f0abirg\u00f0astj\u00f3rn \u00ed Ukra\u00ednu. Hana skortir p\u00f3lit\u00edskt bakland, h\u00fan er fj\u00e1rhagslega gjald\u00ferota og herna\u00f0arlega getulaus. \u00deeir sem best \u00feekkja til segja, a\u00f0 stj\u00f3rnarfar \u00ed \u00dakra\u00ednu s\u00e9 roti\u00f0 \u00ed innsta kjarna, stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1la- og vi\u00f0skiptaforystan s\u00e9 r\u00e6ningjab\u00e6li. St\u00f3rt\u00e6kustu ar\u00f0r\u00e6ningjarnir eru af \u00fdmsum \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0um h\u00e1\u00f0ari Moskvu en Kyiv.<\/p>\n
Ungur \u00dakra\u00ednuma\u00f0ur, nemandi minn, l\u00fdsir reynslu sinni af herskyldu \u00ed \u00dakra\u00ednu svona: \u201cVi\u00f0 fengum hvorki vopn n\u00e9 vistir, hva\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 heldur herkl\u00e6\u00f0i vi\u00f0 h\u00e6fi. Yfirmennirnir st\u00e1lu fj\u00e1rveitingunum, sem \u00e1ttu a\u00f0 fara \u00ed \u00fea\u00f0. Vopnab\u00fana\u00f0ur var \u00farelt drasl. Li\u00f0sforingjarnir nenntu ekki einu sinni a\u00f0 st\u00fdra \u00fej\u00e1lfun \u00ed herb\u00fa\u00f0um, \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 allt sem til \u00feurfti, skorti. A\u00f0alatri\u00f0i\u00f0 var a\u00f0 eiga n\u00e6gar birg\u00f0ir af vodka til a\u00f0 lifa \u00feetta af\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er sagt, a\u00f0 s\u00e9rsveitir innanr\u00edkisr\u00e1\u00f0uneytisins (a\u00f0allega manna\u00f0ar R\u00fassum – skytturnar sem myrtu m\u00f3tm\u00e6lendur \u00e1 Maidan) hafi veri\u00f0 einu hersveitirnar \u00ed \u00fakra\u00ednska hernum, sem h\u00f6f\u00f0u fengi\u00f0 vopnab\u00fana\u00f0 og \u00fej\u00e1lfun sem g\u00e6ti duga\u00f0 \u00ed str\u00ed\u00f0s\u00e1t\u00f6kum. \u00deessar s\u00e9rsveitir voru leystar upp eftir Maidan. Innlimum Kr\u00edm \u00ed R\u00fassland er or\u00f0inn hlutur \u2013 svo ekki ver\u00f0ur aftur sn\u00fai\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 eina sem Kyiv getur gert – ef h\u00fan getur \u00fea\u00f0 – er a\u00f0 semja um afvopnun og brottf\u00f6r \u00fakra\u00ednska setuli\u00f0sins \u00fear. Margir efast um, a\u00f0 br\u00e1\u00f0abirg\u00f0astj\u00f3rnin \u00ed Kyiv hafi p\u00f3lit\u00edkst bakland og stj\u00f3rnskipulega bur\u00f0i til a\u00f0 tryggja, a\u00f0 \u00feing- og forsetakosningarnar \u00ed ma\u00ed geti fari\u00f0 fram fri\u00f0samlega og \u00e1n bl\u00f3\u00f0s\u00fathellinga.<\/p>\n
Eru Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir hr\u00e6ddar? \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki langt h\u00e9\u00f0an til Leningrad. \u00dea\u00f0 hafa veri\u00f0 s\u00e9rstakar her\u00e6fingar \u00e1 landi og \u00ed lofti, r\u00e9tt handan landam\u00e6ranna. R\u00fassneski minnihlutinn \u00ed Eistlandi og Lettlandi er hlutfallslega fj\u00f6lmennari en \u00ed h\u00e9ru\u00f0unum sj\u00f6 \u00ed Su\u00f0austur-\u00dakra\u00ednu. \u00cd Eistlandi 35%. Narva er 95% r\u00fassnesk borg. Savisaar er borgarstj\u00f3ri \u00ed Tallinn \u00ed krafti oddaa\u00f0st\u00f6\u00f0u, sem hann f\u00e6r vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 r\u00e6kta r\u00fassneska minnihlutann. R\u00fassar hafa atkv\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00e9tt \u00ed sveitastj\u00f3rnakosningum en f\u00e1 ekki r\u00edkisborgarar\u00e9tt og \u00fear me\u00f0 atkv\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00e9tt \u00ed \u00feing- og forsetakosningum, nema \u00feeir standist l\u00e1gmarkskr\u00f6fur um eistneskukunn\u00e1ttu. \u00cd Riga, h\u00f6f\u00f0uborg Lettlands \u2013 helstu vi\u00f0skiptaborg vi\u00f0 Eystrasalt – eru R\u00fassar \u00ed meirihluta. \u2013 Spurningin er: A\u00f0 hve miklu leyti hefur \u00fea\u00f0 tekist \u00e1 \u00feessum tuttugu \u00e1rum fr\u00e1 sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i a\u00f0 a\u00f0laga r\u00fassneska minnihlutann a\u00f0 hinum n\u00fdju \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9l\u00f6gum og a\u00f0 tryggja hollustu \u00feeirra vi\u00f0 gistir\u00edki\u00f0 – fremur en Moskvu?<\/p>\n
Um \u00feetta eru skiptar sko\u00f0anir. En eitt er lj\u00f3st: \u00dea\u00f0 er au\u00f0velt fyrir R\u00fassa a\u00f0 hanna atbur\u00f0ar\u00e1s, sem er \u00e6tlu\u00f0 til a\u00f0 r\u00e9ttl\u00e6ta kenninguna um “r\u00e9tt Moskvu til a\u00f0 vernda R\u00fassa\u201d, sem s\u00e6ta mismunun, \u00ed grannr\u00edkjum. Kr\u00edm var upphaflega heimkynni tyrknesk-\u00e6tta\u00f0ra Tartara. Stal\u00edn flutti \u00fe\u00e1 nau\u00f0ungarflutningum \u00ed \u00fer\u00e6la- og dau\u00f0ab\u00fa\u00f0ir s\u00ednar \u00ed S\u00edber\u00edu \u00e1 str\u00ed\u00f0s\u00e1runum. \u00cd sta\u00f0inn voru fluttir inn R\u00fassar, sem eru or\u00f0nir meirihluti \u00ed Kr\u00edm. \u00c1 sj\u00f3nvarpsskj\u00e1num sj\u00e1um vi\u00f0 brosmildar r\u00fassneskar lj\u00f3skur og syngjand k\u00f3sakka, sem fagna \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 sameinast aftur \u00ed fa\u00f0mi m\u00f3\u00f0ur R\u00fasslands.<\/p>\n
Vi\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a muna\u00f0i minnstu, a\u00f0 R\u00fassar v\u00e6ru or\u00f0nir \u00ed meirihluta \u00fear. Forystuli\u00f0 Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a haf\u00f0i s\u00e6tt nau\u00f0ungarflutningum til S\u00edber\u00edu. \u00cd sta\u00f0inn voru fluttir inn R\u00fassar, r\u00e9tt eins og \u00ed Kr\u00edm. \u00dea\u00f0 voru seinustu forv\u00f6\u00f0 a\u00f0 bjarga tungu, \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0erni og menningararfi Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a, \u00ed nafni \u00feess a\u00f0 sameinast aftur fj\u00f6lskyldu evr\u00f3pskra l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkja.<\/p>\n
Er allt \u00feetta \u00ed h\u00e6ttu? \u00c9g heyri ekki betur en a\u00f0 menn taki \u00fev\u00ed sem a\u00f0 h\u00f6ndum ber me\u00f0 \u00e6\u00f0ruleysi. \u00dea\u00f0 er engin taugaveiklun. \u00dea\u00f0 er engin \u00f6rv\u00e6nting. En \u00fea\u00f0 er heldur engin afneitun \u00e1 \u00feeirri sta\u00f0reynd, a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 lifum \u00ed h\u00e6ttulegu umhverfi.<\/p>\n
En menn benda \u00e1 eftirfarandi sta\u00f0reyndir: \u00d6fugt vi\u00f0 \u00dakra\u00ednu hafa allar Eystarsalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir nota\u00f0 t\u00edmann vel til a\u00f0 festa endurheimt sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0is \u00ed sessi og baktryggja \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed bandal\u00f6gum l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkja. Allir, \u00fevert yfir p\u00f3lit\u00edskar v\u00edgl\u00ednur – m.a.s. uppgjafakomm\u00fanistar \u2013 voru fr\u00e1 upphafi samm\u00e1la um meginmarkmi\u00f0 a\u00f0 fengnu sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i: a\u00f0 ganga \u00ed Evr\u00f3pusambandi\u00f0; a\u00f0 ganga \u00ed NATO; og a\u00f0 byggja upp l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0is\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lag og r\u00e9ttarr\u00edki.<\/p>\n
\u00deetta hefur \u00feeim tekist fur\u00f0uvel, \u00fer\u00e1tt fyrir allt. \u00dea\u00f0 er miki\u00f0 afrek \u00e1 sk\u00f6mmum t\u00edma. H\u00e9r var\u00f0 a\u00f0 byggja allt fr\u00e1 grunni. Vi\u00f0urkenningu \u00e1 einkaeignarr\u00e9tti. Frj\u00e1lsa ver\u00f0myndun. Opnun \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagsins. A\u00f0l\u00f6\u00f0un erlendra fj\u00e1rfestinga. Umskautun utanr\u00edkisverslunar fr\u00e1 austri til vesturs. N\u00fdjar stj\u00f3rnaskr\u00e1r, sem bygg\u00f0u \u00e1 grunngildum vestr\u00e6nnar menningar um einstaklingsfrelsi og mannr\u00e9ttindi. S\u00ed\u00f0ast en ekki s\u00edst: uppt\u00f6ku st\u00f6\u00f0ugs gjaldmi\u00f0ils – sem var fyrst bundinn vi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fdskt mark – en s\u00ed\u00f0an vi\u00f0 evru. Eistland og Lettland hafa n\u00fa stigi\u00f0 skrefi\u00f0 til fulls me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 fulln\u00e6gja settum skilyr\u00f0um um uppt\u00f6ku evru.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 var traust gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins og fj\u00e1rhagslegur stu\u00f0ningur Evr\u00f3pusambandsins og Se\u00f0labanka Evr\u00f3pu (og \u00ed Lettlandi, stu\u00f0ningur IMF), sem bjarga\u00f0i \u00fev\u00ed sem bjarga\u00f0 var\u00f0 hj\u00e1 \u00feessum \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0um \u00ed hinni al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legu banka- og fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lakreppu. \u00cd lj\u00f3si \u00feessarar reynslu er ekki undarlegt, a\u00f0 stu\u00f0ningur vi\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambandsa\u00f0ild, \u00fevert \u00e1 flokksl\u00ednur, er yfirgn\u00e6fandi (nema hj\u00e1 hluta r\u00fassneska minnihlutans, sem deilir heimss\u00fdn Evr\u00f3puvaktarinnar).<\/p>\n
Ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0an:<\/b> Forystumenn Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a t\u00f3ku alvarlega, vi\u00f0 endurheimt sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0is, slagor\u00f0i\u00f0 um, a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fa tryggir ekki eftir \u00e1. Allur almenningur vir\u00f0ist bera traust til \u00feess, a\u00f0 Evr\u00f3pusambands- og NATO-a\u00f0ild tryggi sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i \u00feeirra, \u00f6ryggi og efnahagslega afkomu.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Er innlimun Kr\u00edmskagans \u2013 sem sj\u00e1lfstj\u00f3rnarh\u00e9ra\u00f0s \u00ed R\u00fassneska sambandsr\u00edki\u00f0 bara fyrsta skrefi\u00f0? Er \u00e1\u00e6tlun Putins a\u00f0 fylgja \u00feessu eftir \u00ed Su\u00f0-Austurh\u00e9ru\u00f0um \u00dakra\u00ednu, \u00fear sem r\u00fassneski \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ernisminnihlutinn er \u00f6flugur? Hva\u00f0 me\u00f0 Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0irnar \u2013 Eistland og Lettland s\u00e9r \u00ed lagi \u2013 \u00fear sem r\u00fassneski \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ernisminnihlutinn er hlutfallslega enn fj\u00f6lmennari? Kenning Putins, um r\u00e9tt m\u00f3\u00f0ur R\u00fasslands til a\u00f0 vernda r\u00fassneska \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ernisminnihlutann \u00ed grannr\u00edkjunum, \u00e1 ekki s\u00ed\u00f0ur vi\u00f0 \u00fear. Her\u00e6fingar \u00e1 landi og \u00ed lofti r\u00e9tt handan landam\u00e6ra Eistlands og Lettlands minna \u00f3\u00fe\u00e6gilega \u00e1 li\u00f0na t\u00ed\u00f0. En \u00f6fugt vi\u00f0 \u00dakra\u00ednu hafa Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0irnar \u00ferj\u00e1r n\u00fdtt t\u00edmann fr\u00e1 endurheimt sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0is (1991) me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 baktryggja n\u00fdfengi\u00f0 frelsi me\u00f0 a\u00f0ild a\u00f0 b\u00e6\u00f0i Evr\u00f3pusambandinu og NATO. Dugar \u00fea\u00f0?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1342"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2717,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342\/revisions\/2717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}