{"id":2492,"date":"2020-03-11T21:37:01","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T21:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/?p=2492"},"modified":"2020-09-22T09:56:47","modified_gmt":"2020-09-22T09:56:47","slug":"glotud-taekifaeri-ny-framtidarsyn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/?p=2492","title":{"rendered":"GL\u00d6TU\u00d0 T\u00c6KIF\u00c6RI \u2013 N\u00dd FRAMT\u00cd\u00d0ARS\u00ddN"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201eLei\u00f0togar Vesturlanda st\u00f3\u00f0u frammi fyrir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 hrun Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna f\u00e9kk \u00feeim upp \u00ed hendur einstakt t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til a\u00f0 gr\u00f3\u00f0ursetja l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0i og r\u00e9ttarr\u00edki \u00ed R\u00fasslandi. Samt m\u00e1tti \u00f6llum lj\u00f3st vera a\u00f0 \u00feessu fylgdi mikil \u00e1h\u00e6tta<\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Stephane Kieninger \u00ed \u201eMoney for Moscow: The West and the question of financial assistance for Mikhail Gorbachev\u201c<\/em> (\u00ed b\u00f3kinni \u201eExiting the Cold War \u2013 Entering a New World<\/strong>\u201c, ritstj\u00f3rar: Hamilton og Spohr, Johns Hopkins University).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

FALL BERL\u00cdNARM\u00daRSINS 9. n\u00f3vember 1989 marka\u00f0i t\u00edmam\u00f3t. \u00dea\u00f0 ger\u00f0ist eiginlega bara fyrir slysni. Misskilningur milli l\u00e1gtsetts landam\u00e6ravar\u00f0ar og yfirmanna hans \u00ed Austur-\u00de\u00fdskalandi hratt \u00feessu \u00f6llu af sta\u00f0.  \u00dear me\u00f0 h\u00f3fst atbur\u00f0arr\u00e1s sem breytti s\u00f6gunni.  \u00deetta var hvorki fyrirs\u00e9\u00f0, undirb\u00fai\u00f0 n\u00e9 fyrirskipa\u00f0 af yfirv\u00f6ldum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UPPREISN ALMENNINGS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deetta var \u201el\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0i\u201c, \u00ed hinni eiginlegu merkingu or\u00f0sins: grasr\u00f3tarl\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0i.  Eitt leiddi af \u00f6\u00f0ru. R\u00edki mi\u00f0- og austur Evr\u00f3pu losnu\u00f0u undan oki Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna.  Sameining \u00de\u00fdskalands gekk fri\u00f0samlega fyrir sig.  Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir endurheimtu sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i sitt.  Og tveimur \u00e1rum s\u00ed\u00f0ar voru hin fyrrum voldugu Sov\u00e9tr\u00edki ekki lengur til. \u00deau leystust upp \u00ed frumparta s\u00edna \u2013 fri\u00f0samlega \u2013 \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 \u00feri\u00f0ja heimsstyrj\u00f6ldin skylli \u00e1. Enginn s\u00e1 \u00feetta fyrir.  Fr\u00e6gt er a\u00f0 Kohl \u00de\u00fdskalandskanslari sag\u00f0i sk\u00f6mmu \u00e1\u00f0ur: \u201eEkki me\u00f0an \u00e9g lifi\u201c. Samt voru sj\u00fakd\u00f3mseinkennin \u2013 banamein sov\u00e9ska n\u00fdlenduveldisins – l\u00fd\u00f0um lj\u00f3s. En ma\u00f0urinn sem vildi r\u00e1\u00f0a b\u00f3t \u00e1 \u00feeim meinsemdum \u2013 sem bo\u00f0a\u00f0i opnun og kerfisbreytingu (Glasnost og Perestroiku) \u2013 Mikhail Gorbachev – var\u00f0 \u00ed sta\u00f0inn sj\u00e1lfur f\u00f3rnarlamb breytinga, sem hann r\u00e9\u00f0i ekkert vi\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deessara atbur\u00f0a er n\u00fa v\u00ed\u00f0a minnst \u00e1 30 \u00e1ra afm\u00e6linu. Johns Hopkins University \u00ed Washington DC gaf \u00e1 s.l. hausti \u00fat meiri h\u00e1ttar rit \u00ed samvinnu vi\u00f0 Brookings Institute \u00fear sem h\u00f6fundar leitast vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 leggja mat \u00e1 orsakir og aflei\u00f0ingar \u00feessara s\u00f6gulegu vi\u00f0bur\u00f0a. Ritstj\u00f3rarnir, Daniel S. Hamilton og Kristina Spohr, l\u00e1ta h\u00e9r lei\u00f0a saman hesta s\u00edna einstaklinga, sem \u00e1 \u00feessum t\u00edma voru \u00ed innsta hring Gorbachev, Bush eldra, Kohl kanslara, Mitterrand Frakkaforseta og annarra sem \u00fearna komu vi\u00f0 s\u00f6gu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tveir h\u00f6fundanna, \u00fe.\u00e1.m. undirrita\u00f0ur og Mart Laar fv. fors\u00e6tisr\u00e1\u00f0herra Eista, fjalla um sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0isbar\u00e1ttu Eystrasalts\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0a sem undanfara a\u00f0 upplausn og hruni Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna. \u00dearna er einnig a\u00f0 finna innbl\u00e1snar greinar eftir hugsu\u00f0i p\u00f3lsku frelsishreyfingarinnar, Solidarnosc<\/em>, sem afhj\u00fapa miskunarlaust andlega \u00f6rbirg\u00f0 sov\u00e9tkomm\u00fanismans. Einnig er \u00fearna a\u00f0 finna greiningar fr\u00e6\u00f0imanna af yngri kynsl\u00f3\u00f0 sem hafa s\u00f6kkt s\u00e9r ofan \u00ed hin s\u00f6gulegu skj\u00f6l um \u00feessa atbur\u00f0i, sem a\u00f0gengileg eru or\u00f0in \u00e1 skjalas\u00f6fnum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Allir \u00feessir h\u00f6fundar, sem n\u00e1lgast vi\u00f0fangsefni\u00f0 fr\u00e1 \u00f3l\u00edkum sj\u00f3narmi\u00f0um, leita svara vi\u00f0 \u00f3tal spurningum. Hvers vegna hrundu Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkin? Hver voru vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0 lei\u00f0toga vestr\u00e6nna l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkja? Gripu \u00feeir hi\u00f0 einstaka t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri sem \u00feeim gafst \u00fearna til a\u00f0 stu\u00f0la a\u00f0 gr\u00f3\u00f0ursetningu l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0is og r\u00e9ttarr\u00edkis \u00ed R\u00fasslandi og Evras\u00edu? E\u00f0a vissu \u00feeir einfaldlega ekki hva\u00f0an \u00e1 \u00fe\u00e1 st\u00f3\u00f0 ve\u00f0ri\u00f0 og brug\u00f0ust \u00fev\u00ed vi\u00f0 atbur\u00f0arr\u00e1sinni \u2013 of l\u00edti\u00f0 og of seint \u2013 fremur en a\u00f0 st\u00fdra henni?  Er lokani\u00f0usta\u00f0an, s\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00feeir hafi \u00ed grundarvallaratri\u00f0um brug\u00f0ist \u2013 glutra\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur \u00feessu einstaka t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til \u00feess a\u00f0 b\u00faa jar\u00f0arb\u00faum meira \u00f6ryggi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HRUN SOV\u00c9TR\u00cdKJANNA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HVERS VEGNA HRUNDU SOV\u00c9TR\u00cdKIN? Sendiherra hennar h\u00e1tignar \u00ed Moskvu (1987-90), Roderick Lyme, svarar spurningunni \u00e1 \u00feessa lei\u00f0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201e\u00dea\u00f0 voru \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna og Varsj\u00e1rbandalagsins, sem bundu endi \u00e1 Kalda str\u00ed\u00f0i\u00f0 og kollv\u00f6rpu\u00f0u komm\u00fanismanum. \u00dea\u00f0 var ekki Ronald Reagan a\u00f0 \u00feakka a\u00f0 Kalda str\u00ed\u00f0i\u00f0 fjara\u00f0i \u00fat \u00feegar \u00fea\u00f0 ger\u00f0ist. Gerandinn, sem hratt \u00feessari atbur\u00f0arr\u00e1s af sta\u00f0, var Mikhail Gorbachev, sem lag\u00f0i upp \u00ed \u00feennan lei\u00f0angur me\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 lei\u00f0arlj\u00f3si a\u00f0 bjarga sov\u00e9tkerfinu, en enda\u00f0i me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 vera s\u00f3pa\u00f0 burt me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed<\/em>.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deetta m\u00e1 einnig or\u00f0a \u00e1 annan veg: Undir lok valdat\u00edma Gorbachev (1985-92) voru Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkin einfaldlega gjald\u00ferota, b\u00e6\u00f0i efnahagslega og hugmyndalega. \u00dea\u00f0 var\u00f0 a\u00f0 lokum hlutskipti Gorbachevs a\u00f0 ganga aftur og aftur me\u00f0 betlistaf \u00ed hendi \u00e1 fund vestr\u00e6nna lei\u00f0toga, til a\u00f0 betla um l\u00e1n til \u00feess a\u00f0 halda kerfinu \u00e1 floti fr\u00e1 degi til dags. Eftirma\u00f0ur hans, Boris Yeltsin, f\u00e9kk vi\u00f0 ekkert r\u00e1\u00f0i\u00f0 og sat hj\u00e1lparvana uppi \u00ed r\u00fastunum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00fassar \u00e1ttu ekki fyrir br\u00fdnustu l\u00edfsnau\u00f0synjum. \u00de\u00f3tt bi\u00f0ra\u00f0irnar lengdust st\u00f3\u00f0u hillur verslananna t\u00f3mar. Hinar stoltu str\u00ed\u00f0shetjur Rau\u00f0a hersins seldu hei\u00f0ursmerki s\u00edn \u00e1 torgum og gatnam\u00f3tum til a\u00f0 eiga fyrir t\u00f3baki; og ekkjurnar leitu\u00f0u \u00e1 ruslahaugum a\u00f0 matarleifum til a\u00f0 se\u00f0ja hungur barnanna. Eitt d\u00e6mi sem l\u00fdsir \u00e1standinu \u00ed hnotskurn: \u00c1ri\u00f0 1992 \u00feurfti yfirma\u00f0ur Nor\u00f0urflotans, Gromov flotaforingi, a\u00f0 betla hj\u00e1 norskum kollegum vi\u00f0 landam\u00e6rin um mat handa herm\u00f6nnum s\u00ednum. L\u00e6gra ver\u00f0ur varla lagst fyrir heimsveldi\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David C. Gompert, fyrrum a\u00f0sto\u00f0arma\u00f0ur Henrys Kissinger, utanr\u00edkisr\u00e1\u00f0herra BNA og sov\u00e9ts\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur, l\u00fdsir \u00e1standinu undir lokin \u00e1 \u00feessa lei\u00f0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eSov\u00e9tveldi\u00f0 var \u00f3samst\u00e6\u00f0 blanda af marx\u00edskri hugmyndafr\u00e6\u00f0i, mi\u00f0st\u00fdr\u00f0um \u00e1\u00e6tlunarb\u00faskap, ofv\u00f6xnu skrifr\u00e6\u00f0i flokks og r\u00edkis, r\u00fassneskri n\u00fdlendustefnu og \u00e1takap\u00f3lit\u00edk vi\u00f0 Vesturl\u00f6nd. Allt \u00feetta h\u00e1timbra\u00f0a b\u00e1kn hrundi undan eigin \u00feunga. Hugmyndafr\u00e6\u00f0in haf\u00f0i ofn\u00e6mi fyrir sannleikanum; \u00e1\u00e6tlunarb\u00faskapurinn \u00fatiloka\u00f0i frumkv\u00e6\u00f0i og n\u00fdsk\u00f6pun; skrifr\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0 var dau\u00f0anum v\u00edgt; \u00e1r\u00f3\u00f0ursmask\u00ednan var veruleikafirrt; ofvaxi\u00f0 herna\u00f0arb\u00e1kni\u00f0 sliga\u00f0i hagkerfi\u00f0; v\u00edgb\u00fana\u00f0arkapphlaupi\u00f0 soga\u00f0i til s\u00edn allt fj\u00e1rfestingarfj\u00e1rmagn og rekstur heimsvaldakerfisins, \u00fe.m.t. herna\u00f0ar\u00edhlutanir \u00e1 K\u00fabu, \u00ed Afr\u00edku og undir lokin \u00ed Afganistan leiddu til gjald\u00ferots. Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkin voru einfaldlega \u00f3samkeppnisf\u00e6r vi\u00f0 Vesturl\u00f6nd, hvort heldur var\u00f0a\u00f0i t\u00e6kni og n\u00fdsk\u00f6pun, hagv\u00f6xt, herna\u00f0am\u00e1tt, e\u00f0a samkeppni p\u00f3lit\u00edskra hugmynda. \u00deegar heimsmarka\u00f0sver\u00f0 \u00e1 ol\u00edu og gasi \u2013 sem var eina au\u00f0suppspretta \u00feessa van\u00fer\u00f3a\u00f0a kerfis \u2013 hrundi, m\u00e1 segja a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 hafi veitt \u00feessu a\u00f0framkomna kerfi n\u00e1bjargirnar<\/em>.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Annar sendiherra Breta \u00ed Moskvu (1988-92), Sir Roderich Braithvaite, or\u00f0ar sj\u00fakd\u00f3msgreiningu s\u00edna \u00e1 \u00feennan veg:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eFj\u00f6rbrot Sov\u00e9tkerfisins st\u00f3\u00f0u \u00ed heilan \u00e1ratug og leiddu af s\u00e9r p\u00f3lit\u00edska upplausn og efnahagslega \u00f6rbirg\u00f0 \u00e1 t\u00edmabili Yeltsins. Svokalla\u00f0ir s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar \u00e1 vegum stofnana Vesturlanda eins og Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0abankans og Al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0agjaldeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0sins (IMF\/AGS) kunnu l\u00edtt til verka og h\u00f6f\u00f0u vi\u00f0 enga reynslu a\u00f0 sty\u00f0jast um \u00fea\u00f0, hvernig \u00e6tti a\u00f0 hreinsa upp r\u00fastirnar og leggja undirst\u00f6\u00f0ur a\u00f0 starfh\u00e6fu marka\u00f0skerfi. \u00deetta var t\u00f3mt h\u00e1lfk\u00e1k. Eftir\u00e1 undru\u00f0ust margir hvers vegna P\u00f3lverjar kunnu mun betur til verka vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 verkst\u00fdra umskiptunum. Svari\u00f0 er a\u00f0 finna a\u00f0 hluta \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 st\u00e6r\u00f0 R\u00fasslands var \u00f3vi\u00f0r\u00e1\u00f0anleg; R\u00fassar h\u00f6f\u00f0u enga reynslu af starfh\u00e6fu marka\u00f0skerfi; s\u00fa sta\u00f0reynd a\u00f0 R\u00fassar h\u00f6f\u00f0u sj\u00e1lfir byggt upp \u00feetta kerfi, sj\u00e1lfum s\u00e9r a\u00f0 fj\u00f6rtj\u00f3ni og \u00fev\u00ed n\u00e6st \u00fer\u00f6ngva\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed upp \u00e1 P\u00f3lverja og a\u00f0rar \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir Austur-Evr\u00f3pu, olli \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 hinar s\u00ed\u00f0arnefndu \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir voru tilt\u00f6lulega flj\u00f3tar a\u00f0 varpa af s\u00e9r okinu.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deETTA ER H\u00c1LFSANNLEIKUR. Vissulega er \u00fea\u00f0 r\u00e9tt a\u00f0 sov\u00e9tkerfi\u00f0 var vi\u00f0 dau\u00f0ans dyr. \u00dev\u00ed var ekki vi\u00f0 bjargandi fremur en n\u00fdlenduveldum Breta e\u00f0a Frakka eftir lok seinni heimsstyrjaldar. Umb\u00f3tama\u00f0urinn, Mikhail Gorbachev, sem vildi koma fram umb\u00f3tum til a\u00f0 bjarga kerfinu fr\u00e1 fyrirsj\u00e1anlegu hruni, haf\u00f0i hvorki hugmyndir n\u00e9 reynslu vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 sty\u00f0jast um, hvernig \u00e6tti a\u00f0 gera \u00fea\u00f0, n\u00e9 heldur haf\u00f0i hann fj\u00e1rhagslega bur\u00f0i til \u00feess.  Hann \u00feurfti p\u00f3lit\u00edska \u00e1fallahj\u00e1lp. Og \u00fea\u00f0 strax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARSHALL-\u00c1\u00c6TLUN?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hver voru vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0 lei\u00f0toga Vesturlanda? \u00deeir bundu allt sitt tr\u00fass vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 halda Gorbachev vi\u00f0 v\u00f6ld, \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 gera nokku\u00f0 sem a\u00f0 gagni kom, til a\u00f0 gera \u00fea\u00f0 m\u00f6gulegt. Ol\u00eduma\u00f0urinn fr\u00e1 Texas, George H. W. Bush Sr. (1988-92) sem \u00e1tti a\u00f0 r\u00e1\u00f0a f\u00f6r \u00e1 \u00feeim t\u00edmam\u00f3tum sem skiptu sk\u00f6pum, \u00fer\u00e1staga\u00f0ist \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed alla s\u00edna t\u00ed\u00f0, a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rhagsa\u00f0sto\u00f0 k\u00e6mi ekki til greina, nema fyrir l\u00e6gi \u00e1\u00e6tlun um framkv\u00e6mdina. En li\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00ed kringum hann kunni ekkert til \u00feeirra verka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deA\u00d0 SEM \u00deURFTI VAR N\u00dd MARSHALL-\u00c1\u00c6TLUN<\/strong>. H\u00fan hef\u00f0i \u00feurft a\u00f0 vera samb\u00e6rileg a\u00f0 umfangi og s\u00fa Marshall-\u00e1\u00e6tlun sem Bandar\u00edkin veittu Evr\u00f3pu eftir str\u00ed\u00f0 (ekki s\u00edst af \u00f3tta vi\u00f0 valdat\u00f6ku komm\u00fanista t.d. \u00e1 \u00cdtal\u00edu og \u00ed Frakklandi) til a\u00f0 reisa hana vi\u00f0 \u00far r\u00fastum. Au\u00f0vita\u00f0 \u00e1tti ekki a\u00f0 d\u00e6la fj\u00e1rmagni ofan \u00ed svarthol sov\u00e9tkomm\u00fanismans. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00feurfti a\u00f0 vinna eftir \u00feaulhugsa\u00f0ri \u00e1\u00e6tlun um framkv\u00e6md umskiptanna. Yavlinsky-\u00e1\u00e6tlunin<\/em>, sem var unnin \u00ed samstarfi R\u00fassa (Yavlinsky og Gaidar) og Harvard h\u00e1sk\u00f3la var noth\u00e6f til s\u00edns br\u00faks. Framkv\u00e6mdin hef\u00f0i kosta\u00f0 u.\u00fe.b. 150 milljar\u00f0a dala \u00e1 5 \u00e1ra t\u00edmabili.  \u00deetta var spurning um a\u00f0 vera e\u00f0a vera ekki. H\u00e6tta f\u00faskinu, en leggja \u00fea\u00f0 undir, sem \u00feyrfti, til a\u00f0 n\u00e1 \u00e1rangri. \u00dearna var t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri\u00f0 til \u00feess a\u00f0 hj\u00e1lpa l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0is\u00f6flunum \u00ed R\u00fasslandi vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u201el\u00e1ta frelsi og l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0i skj\u00f3ta r\u00f3tum \u00ed r\u00fassneskum jar\u00f0vegi\u201c<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eini vestr\u00e6ni lei\u00f0toginn sem skildi \u00feetta og greip t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri\u00f0 var Kohl \u00de\u00fdskalandskanslari. S\u00e1 hinn sami og haf\u00f0i sagt a\u00f0 \u00feetta t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri k\u00e6mi ekki \u00e1 hans \u00e6viskei\u00f0i. \u00dea\u00f0 kom n\u00fa samt. Og hann reyndist vera vandanum vaxinn. Hann n\u00e1\u00f0i samningum vi\u00f0 Gorbachev \u00ed nokkrum \u00e1f\u00f6ngum um fri\u00f0samlega sameiningu \u00de\u00fdskalands og \u00e1framhaldandi veru sameina\u00f0s \u00de\u00fdskalands \u00ed NAT\u00d3. Og hann reiddi fram \u00fea\u00f0 f\u00e9 sem \u00feurfti. Upphaflega 20 milljar\u00f0a \u00fe\u00fdskra marka til a\u00f0 innsigla gj\u00f6rninginn. A\u00f0 lokum n\u00e1lga\u00f0ist reikningurinn 100 milljar\u00f0a marka fram a\u00f0 \u00e1rinu 1994 til \u00feess a\u00f0 kosta brottflutning Rau\u00f0a hersins fr\u00e1 A-\u00de\u00fdskalandi. Kohl borga\u00f0i reikninginn og f\u00e9kk \u00fea\u00f0 sem hann vildi. Og \u00e1tti \u00fe\u00f3 eftir a\u00f0 borga mun h\u00e6rri reikninga fyrir endurreisn A-\u00de\u00fdskalands og a\u00f0l\u00f6gun \u00feess a\u00f0 vestur-\u00fe\u00fdska hagkerfinu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bush Bandar\u00edkjaforseti l\u00e9t hins vegar t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri\u00f0 s\u00e9r \u00far greipum ganga. Hann var algerlega \u00f3vi\u00f0b\u00fainn. Vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0in voru f\u00e1t og fum. \u00dev\u00ed til s\u00f6nnunar er hin alr\u00e6mda \u201ekj\u00faklinga-r\u00e6\u00f0a\u201c, svo k\u00f6llu\u00f0, sem hann flutti \u00ed \u00feinginu (Verkovna Rada) \u00ed Kyiv 1. \u00e1g\u00fast 1991, \u00feremur vikum \u00e1\u00f0ur en \u00dakra\u00edna l\u00fdsti yfir sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0i; og n\u00e1kv\u00e6mlega 145 d\u00f6gum \u00e1\u00f0ur en Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkin hrundu.  Og hver var bo\u00f0skapurinn?  Hann skora\u00f0i \u00e1 \u00dakra\u00ednumenn a\u00f0 \u201e\u00e1netjast ekki \u00f6fgakenndri \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ernishyggju\u201c, heldur a\u00f0 \u201ehalda Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjunum saman \u2013 \u00ed nafni fri\u00f0ar og st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika\u201c. \u201eHeimsmet \u00ed d\u00f3mgreindarleysi\u201c a\u00f0 mati stj\u00f3rnm\u00e1lask\u00fdranda NYTimes, Williams Safire. \u00dea\u00f0 er s\u00edst ofm\u00e6lt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deA\u00d0 VAR \u00deARNA sem t\u00e6kif\u00e6rinu var glutra\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur \u2013 \u00feessu einstaka t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til a\u00f0 breyta heiminum til hins betra fyrir n\u00fdjar kynsl\u00f3\u00f0ir. \u00dea\u00f0 var \u00fearna sem lei\u00f0togum l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkja vesturlanda br\u00e1st bogalistinn.  Bush hefur oft veri\u00f0 gagnr\u00fdndur fyrir a\u00f0 hann skorti alla framt\u00ed\u00f0ars\u00fdn \u2013 \u201ethe vision-thing<\/em>\u201c \u2013 eins og hann kalla\u00f0i \u00fea\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfur me\u00f0 ni\u00f0randi or\u00f0brag\u00f0i. Gorbachev var samstarfsf\u00fas, enda l\u00e1 p\u00f3lit\u00edsk l\u00edf hans vi\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hef\u00f0u l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0is\u00f6fl R\u00fasslands geta\u00f0 lagt traustan grunn a\u00f0 l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0islegum stofnunum og starfh\u00e6fu marka\u00f0skerfi \u00ed R\u00fasslandi, ef \u00feeim hef\u00f0i sta\u00f0i\u00f0 til bo\u00f0a Marshall-\u00e1\u00e6tlun af \u00fev\u00ed tagi, sem h\u00e9r hefur veri\u00f0 l\u00fdst? Og nau\u00f0synlegur fj\u00e1rhagsstu\u00f0ningur til a\u00f0 hrinda henni \u00ed framkv\u00e6md? Hef\u00f0um vi\u00f0 \u00fear me\u00f0 geta\u00f0 l\u00e1ti\u00f0 vonir okkar r\u00e6tast um n\u00fdtt \u00f6ryggiskerfi til framb\u00fa\u00f0ar \u2013 \u201ea Eurasian-Atlantic security system<\/em>\u201c?  \u00c9g veit \u00fea\u00f0 ekki. \u00dea\u00f0 veit \u00fea\u00f0 enginn. Vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 lei\u00f0togar Vesturlanda l\u00e9tu t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri\u00f0 s\u00e9r \u00far greipum ganga. En fyrirfram er engin \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0a til a\u00f0 halda a\u00f0 \u00feetta hef\u00f0i veri\u00f0 \u00f3vinnandi verk \u2013 mission impossible<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00d3S\u00cdAL\u00cdSKT MARKA\u00d0SKERFI?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Var a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0in vi\u00f0 umskiptin fr\u00e1 mi\u00f0st\u00fdr\u00f0u hagkerfi af sov\u00e9sku ger\u00f0inni yfir \u00ed valddreift en starfh\u00e6ft marka\u00f0skerfi undir l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0islegri stj\u00f3rn \u00f3\u00feekkt fyrirb\u00e6ri \u2013 terra incognita<\/em> \u2013 \u00ed hagfr\u00e6\u00f0inni? Fjarri \u00fev\u00ed. M\u00f3deli\u00f0 er al\u00feekkt. \u00dea\u00f0 heitir hi\u00f0 f\u00e9lagslega marka\u00f0skerfi, sem byggt var upp \u00far r\u00fastum Evr\u00f3pu eftir str\u00ed\u00f0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kunnur hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur, Acemoglu vi\u00f0 MIT h\u00e1sk\u00f3lann, l\u00fdsir \u00feessu svona:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201e\u00deetta f\u00e9lagslega marka\u00f0skerfi festi r\u00e6tur \u00ed Evr\u00f3pu \u2013 me\u00f0 bestum \u00e1rangri \u00e1 Nor\u00f0url\u00f6ndum \u2013 \u00e1 seinni helft 20stu aldar.  \u00dea\u00f0 sn\u00fdst um a\u00f0 halda aftur af \u00f3beislu\u00f0um marka\u00f0s\u00f6flum, draga \u00far \u00f3j\u00f6fnu\u00f0i og b\u00e6ta l\u00edfskj\u00f6r hinna verst settu…<\/em> \u00cd stuttu m\u00e1li sagt: Evr\u00f3pskt \u201e<\/em>social-democracy\u201c er kerfi sem sn\u00fdst um a\u00f0 hafa stj\u00f3rn \u00e1 marka\u00f0skerfinu <\/em>en ekki a\u00f0 leggja \u00fea\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acemoglu hefur \u00fdmislegt a\u00f0 segja um \u00feann \u00e1rangur sem \u00feetta marka\u00f0skerfi hefur n\u00e1\u00f0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eF\u00e9lagslegt marka\u00f0skerfi \u2013 \u201esocial-democracy\u201c \u2013 lag\u00f0i grunninn a\u00f0 efnahagslegri velmegun hvarvetna \u00ed hinum i\u00f0nv\u00e6dda heimi eftir seinna str\u00ed\u00f0. \u00deetta \u00e1 l\u00edka vi\u00f0 um Bandar\u00edkin \u00fear sem New Deal<\/strong> Roosevelts og a\u00f0rar umb\u00e6tur \u00ed framhaldi af \u00fev\u00ed festu \u00ed sessi veigamikla \u00fe\u00e6tti hins f\u00e9lagslega marka\u00f0skerfis, \u00fe.\u00e1.m. samninga st\u00e9ttaf\u00e9laga um kaup og kj\u00f6r, f\u00e9lagslegar tryggingar og gjaldfrj\u00e1lsan a\u00f0gang a\u00f0 menntun<\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VORU LEI\u00d0TOGAR AND\u00d3FSAFLA innan Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna og \u00ed l\u00f6ndum mi\u00f0- og austur Evr\u00f3pu f\u00e1fr\u00f3\u00f0ir um \u00feessa a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i? Vissulega ekki. Innan hagfr\u00e6\u00f0innar er vel\u00feekkt kenningakerfi undir nafninu \u201es\u00f3s\u00edal\u00edskt marka\u00f0skerfi\u201c, sem kennt er vi\u00f0 nafn p\u00f3lska \u00fatlagahagfr\u00e6\u00f0ingsins Oskars Lange.  \u00dea\u00f0 var \u00e1 s\u00ednum t\u00edma m.a.s. kennt vi\u00f0 nafn hans og Chicago sk\u00f3lann: Chicago sk\u00f3li Oskars Lange, til a\u00f0greiningar fr\u00e1 Chicago sk\u00f3lanum, sem kenndur er vi\u00f0 n\u00fdfrj\u00e1lshyggju Miltons Friedman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fyrir langa l\u00f6ngu, n\u00e1nar tilteki\u00f0 \u00e1ri\u00f0 1961, gafst m\u00e9r t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til \u00feess a\u00f0 sl\u00e1st \u00ed h\u00f3p f\u00e1einna hagfr\u00e6\u00f0ist\u00fadenta fr\u00e1 Nor\u00f0url\u00f6ndum og Bretlandseyjum til a\u00f0 taka \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed s\u00e9rst\u00f6ku n\u00e1mskei\u00f0i \u00ed Sakopane<\/em> \u00ed Tatrafj\u00f6llunum \u00ed P\u00f3llandi, \u00fear sem kennsluefni\u00f0 var n\u00e1kv\u00e6mlega \u00feetta: \u201eThe socialist-market economy<\/em>\u201c: Lei\u00f0beinendur okkar voru l\u00e6r\u00f0ir fr\u00e6\u00f0imenn fr\u00e1 P\u00f3llandi (Bobrowsky) og T\u00e9kk\u00f3sl\u00f3vak\u00edu (Ota Sik).  \u00dearna var fari\u00f0 yfir a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0ina vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 afl\u00e9tta hinum mi\u00f0st\u00fdr\u00f0a \u00e1\u00e6tlunarb\u00faskap \u00ed \u00e1f\u00f6ngum og a\u00f0 innlei\u00f0a samkeppni \u00e1 marka\u00f0i \u00ed sta\u00f0inn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cd landb\u00fana\u00f0i \u00e1tti \u00feetta a\u00f0 gerast me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 afleggja r\u00edkis\u00fevinga\u00f0an samyrkjub\u00faskap og leyfa \u00feeim sem erju\u00f0u j\u00f6r\u00f0ina a\u00f0 selja afur\u00f0ir s\u00ednar \u00e1 m\u00f6rku\u00f0um \u00ed n\u00e6rliggjandi borgum. N\u00e6sta verk var a\u00f0 vi\u00f0urkenna \u00fdmis form eignarr\u00e9ttar (einkaeign, samvinnuf\u00e9l\u00f6g o.fl.) \u00ed efnahagsstarfseminni, allt undir merkjum samkeppni \u00e1 marka\u00f0i, b\u00e6\u00f0i var\u00f0andi framlei\u00f0slu og dreifingu \u00e1 v\u00f6rum og \u00fej\u00f3nustu. N\u00e1tt\u00faruau\u00f0lindir \u00e6ttu hins vegar a\u00f0 vera \u00ed opinberri eigu (eins og er \u00e1 Nor\u00f0url\u00f6ndum). Og r\u00edki e\u00f0a sveitarf\u00e9l\u00f6g \u00e6ttu a\u00f0 hafa \u00e1 hendi grunn\u00fej\u00f3nustu (eins og menntakerfi, heilbrig\u00f0is\u00fej\u00f3nustu, orkuframlei\u00f0slu og dreifingu, og almannasamg\u00f6ngur), sem v\u00e6ri veitt sem almanna\u00fej\u00f3nusta, \u00e1n hagna\u00f0arsj\u00f3narmi\u00f0a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NORR\u00c6NA M\u00d3DELI\u00d0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deETTA ER NORR\u00c6NA M\u00d3DELI\u00d0. \u00dea\u00f0 er n\u00fa \u00feegar vi\u00f0urkennt af \u00feeim sem skyn bera \u00e1 sem \u00e1rangurr\u00edkasta samf\u00e9lags- og efnahagsm\u00f3del samt\u00edmans. \u00c1 um\u00fe\u00f3ttunart\u00edmanum fr\u00e1 mi\u00f0st\u00fdr\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0n\u00fdtingarhagkerfi til hins f\u00e9lagslega marka\u00f0skerfis \u00fearf fyrst og fremst a\u00f0 tryggja fj\u00e1rhagslegan stu\u00f0ning vi\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0uleika gjaldmi\u00f0ilsins; fj\u00e1rhagslega baktryggingu til a\u00f0 r\u00e1\u00f0a vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0b\u00f3lguvo\u00f0ann vi\u00f0 umskipti til frj\u00e1lsrar ver\u00f0myndunar; svo \u00fearf a\u00f0 tryggja a\u00f0gang a\u00f0 erlendu fj\u00e1rmagni til fj\u00e1rfestingar, sem og til a\u00f0 innlei\u00f0a n\u00fdja t\u00e6kni. Skattakerfi\u00f0 \u00fearf a\u00f0 hafa innbygg\u00f0a hvata til \u00feess a\u00f0 gera \u00feetta kleift. K\u00ednverjar kalla \u00feetta kerfi n\u00fatildags \u201ek\u00ednverska m\u00f3deli\u00f0\u201c. Og telja a\u00f0 Deng Xiaoping eigi h\u00f6fundarr\u00e9tt a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed.  \u00dea\u00f0 hefur skila\u00f0 einst\u00e6\u00f0um s\u00f6gulegum \u00e1rangri. \u00dea\u00f0 hefur lyft hundru\u00f0um millj\u00f3na manna \u00far \u00f6rbirg\u00f0 til bjarg\u00e1lna, \u00e1 \u00f3tr\u00falega sk\u00f6mmum t\u00edma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EF HRUN SOV\u00c9TR\u00cdKJANNA skapa\u00f0i t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til a\u00f0 leggja grunn a\u00f0 l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0islegu R\u00fasslandi, sem byggt yr\u00f0i upp \u00e1 r\u00fastum komm\u00fanismans, \u00fe\u00e1 vitum vi\u00f0 n\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00feetta einstaka t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri f\u00f3r forg\u00f6r\u00f0um. Eftir upplausn Yeltsin-t\u00edmabilsins hefur R\u00fassland n\u00fa sn\u00fai\u00f0 aftur til fort\u00ed\u00f0ar sem valdstj\u00f3rnarr\u00edki, me\u00f0 afturgengna n\u00fdlendutilbur\u00f0i. Og er \u00feess vegna h\u00e6ttulegt n\u00e1gr\u00f6nnum s\u00ednum.  \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feetta sem \u00e1tti a\u00f0 koma \u00ed veg fyrir. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feetta sem hefur brug\u00f0ist. \u00deetta eru hin s\u00f6gulegu mist\u00f6k lei\u00f0toga vestr\u00e6nna l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0isr\u00edkja eftir hrun Sov\u00e9tr\u00edkjanna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c1 \u00feeim t\u00edma \u00f3lum vi\u00f0 me\u00f0 okkur h\u00e1leitar hugmyndir um n\u00fdja heimsskipan, sem yr\u00f0i bygg\u00f0 \u00e1 traustum grunnu f\u00e9lagslegs marka\u00f0skerfis, l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0is og r\u00e9ttarr\u00edkis. \u00deessir bjarts\u00fdnu framt\u00ed\u00f0ardraumar hafa ekki r\u00e6st. Vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum sveiflast fr\u00e1 einum \u00f6fgum til annarra; Fr\u00e1 mi\u00f0st\u00fdr\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0n\u00fdtingarkerfi, sem skila\u00f0i ekki v\u00f6runum og enda\u00f0i \u00ed sveltandi s\u00f3s\u00edalisma; til \u00f3hamins marka\u00f0skerfis, sem l\u00e6tur ekki a\u00f0 l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0islegri stj\u00f3rn og skilur eftir sig s\u00edvaxandi og \u00f3bo\u00f0legan \u00f3j\u00f6fnu\u00f0 eigna og tekna. Hvort tveggja \u00f3gnar l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0inu. Uppgangur allsr\u00e1\u00f0andi au\u00f0kl\u00edkna \u2013 b\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum og R\u00fasslandi – er \u00f3gnun vi\u00f0 sj\u00e1lft l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0i\u00f0.  \u00c9g \u00e6tla a\u00f0 gefa pr\u00f3fessor Acemoglu lokaor\u00f0in \u2013 n\u00fa \u00ed a\u00f0dragandi Bandar\u00edsku forsetakosninganna:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201e\u00dea\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 \u00feurfum er ekki \u00f3heft marka\u00f0skerfi \u00ed bl\u00f3ra vi\u00f0 l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0islega stj\u00f3rn; \u00fea\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 \u00feurfum er \u201esocial-democracy\u201c a\u00f0 norr\u00e6nni fyrirmynd. \u00cd Bandar\u00edkjunum \u00feurfum vi\u00f0 \u00e1 a\u00f0 halda atbeina r\u00edkissins vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 hafa taumhald \u00e1 ofv\u00f6xnu marka\u00f0svaldi au\u00f0hringa. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf a\u00f0 efla \u00e1hrif vinnandi f\u00f3lks \u00e1 l\u00edfskj\u00f6r og stj\u00f3rnarfar og \u00fea\u00f0 \u00fearf a\u00f0 styrkja opinbera \u00fej\u00f3nustu og \u00f6ryggisnet hinna verst settu. S\u00ed\u00f0ast en ekki s\u00edst \u00feurfum vi\u00f0 Bandar\u00edkjamenn a\u00f0 n\u00e1 t\u00f6kum \u00e1 t\u00e6knirisunum, sem eru a\u00f0 vaxa l\u00fd\u00f0r\u00e6\u00f0inu yfir h\u00f6fu\u00f0. Og skapa skilyr\u00f0i fyrir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 afrakstri efnahagsstarfseminnar ver\u00f0i dreift, \u00f6llum \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lags\u00feegnum til hagsb\u00f3ta<\/em>.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00deetta er hverju or\u00f0i sannarra. Og \u00e1 l\u00edka vi\u00f0 um okkur hin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(H\u00f6fundur var forma\u00f0ur Al\u00fe\u00fd\u00f0uflokksins, flokks \u00edslenskra jafna\u00f0armanna og fj\u00e1rm\u00e1la-og utanr\u00edkisr\u00e1\u00f0herra 1988-1995). N\u00fdjustu b\u00e6kur hans eru: The Baltic Road to Freedom \u2013 Iceland\u2018s role, The Nordic Model vs The Neoliberal Challenge, (Lambert Academic publications) og T\u00e6pitungulaust: L\u00edfssko\u00f0un jafna\u00f0armanns – (HB Av 2019<\/em>). \u00deeir sem vilja kynna s\u00e9r m\u00e1li\u00f0 betur sj\u00e1 heimildamyndina Those who dare: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=n7oR7QlirDE&feature=youtu.be<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00deann 11. mars fagna Lith\u00e1ar 30 \u00e1ra afm\u00e6li s\u00edns endurheimta sj\u00e1lfst\u00e6\u00f0is. Eftirfarandi grein er bygg\u00f0 \u00e1 fyrirlestri sem h\u00f6fundur \u00e1tti a\u00f0 flytja \u00e1 afm\u00e6lish\u00e1t\u00ed\u00f0inni vi\u00f0 h\u00e1sk\u00f3lann \u00ed Vilnius. \u00d6llum h\u00e1t\u00ed\u00f0arh\u00f6ldum hefur hins vegar veri\u00f0 slegi\u00f0 \u00e1 frest, \u00fat af COVID19. Greinin birtist \u00ed fj\u00f6lmi\u00f0lum \u00ed Lith\u00e1en og Eistlandi og \u00e1 ensku \u00ed Baltic Times. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allar_greinar","category-greinar_og_vidtol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2492"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2580,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492\/revisions\/2580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jbh.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}