The Baltic Road to Freedom – revisited

Introduction: Aku Sorainen – a Finn living in Tallinn – is the founder and CEO of the biggest legal service operating in all the Baltic countries and Belarus. June 4th, 2015 Aku and his partners celebrated the 20th anniversary of their highly successful partnership. Aku invited me to give a keynote-speech at the beginning of the conference on the subject: The Baltic Road to Freedom revisited – a quarter century later. The next speaker was Lieutenant General Riho Terras, commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, who dealt with „challenges in Defence and Security“ for the young Estonian Republic. Mart Noorma, founder of the first Estonian student satelite program EST-CUBE, gave an interesting talk entitled: „Who will be on Mars in 2020 and where will we be then?“ Eriks Stendzenieks, president of the Latvian Art Directors´Club in Riga, gave a hilarious talk on how the underdogs (small nations) manage to survive in the animal kingdom. All the proceedings of this remarkable conference can be viewed at http://www.sorainen.com/ .

1. Ending the Cold War

Let me at the outset present you with two quotations – just to start us thinking. Here is the first one:

The dissolution of the Soviet Union is the greatest geo-strategic catastrophe of the 20th century“.

From the point of view of a KGB officer in occupied Germany, Putin´s lament for the fate of the Soviet Union is understandable. After all, didn´t British, French and Spanish colonialists firmly believe in the civilizing mission of their empires?

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Interview by Ilze Nagla of Latvian LTV-1

The following interview by Ilze Nagla of Latvian LTV-1 was broadcast on May 3d, 2015 in a program dedicated to the independence struggle of the Latvian poeple, because a quarter century has passed since the declaration of independence. That declaration of independence was not activated until Iceland took the initiative in giving it diplomatic recognition at a ceremony at Höfdi House in Reykjavík, August 26th, 1991.

http://ltv.lsm.lv/lv/raksts/04.05.2015-islande-latvijas-neatkaribu-atzina-pirma.id48680/

The transition from totalitarianism to democracy: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE BALTIC POST-INDEPENDENCE EXPERIENCE?

Introduction: On April 21st I gave the following speech at a conference held in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The theme of the conference, as well as of my keynote speech, was to seek answers to the question: What can Ukraine learn from the Baltic post-independence experience? It turned out that there is a lot to be learnt from the Baltic experience. The most important lesson is that right from the beginning the political leadership in the Baltic countries stood united – across the political barricades, left, right and center – to consolidate their fragile independence by joining the EU and to take out an insurance policy against future threats by joining NATO. This unity of purpose gave their domestic politics – despite all the turmoil and social upheaval of the most difficult transition period – the internal descipline needed to push through and stand by difficult and necessary, but unpopular, decisions. This steadfastness of purpose and long term strategy has been sadly missing in Ukraine all the time since independence.

In February 1990 – tventy five years ago – the president of the United States and the founder of the Bush dynasty, gave a speech here in Kyiv, which later has become infamous. It was castigated as „the chicken speech“. In this speech the undisputed leader of Western democracy appealed to Ukrainians „not to succumb to extreme nationalism“; and to keep the Soviet Union together by all means, in the name of peace and stability.

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Those who dare…

When Mikhail Gorbachev rose to power in 1985, his reform policy sparked an independence movement in the Baltic states. But as their cries for help were answered with silence from the international community, two small nations answered the call – Iceland and Denmark – motivated by the personal connections of their foreign ministers.

THOSE WHO DARE outlines the Baltic nations’ (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania’s) struggle for the restoration of their independence, from 1986-1991, Gorbachev’s perestroika paving the way. It recaptures the dramatic course of events in the Baltic capitals of Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn in January 1991 when the Soviet military attempted to brutally suppress the independence movements. At that moment, Jón Baldvin Hannibalsson, the minister of foreign affairs of Iceland, was the only western foreign minister to travel to the Baltic capitals to show his support, thus inscribing Iceland in golden letters in the minds of the Baltic people.

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Why is a majority of Icelanders, according to opinion polls, opposed to Iceland´s membership of the European Union?

Meistaraprófsnemi við Collége d´Europe í Belgíu, Tim Gemers, valdi sér sem rannsóknarverkefni spurninguna: Hvers vegna er meirihluti Íslendinga andvígur aðild Íslands að Evrópusambandinu? Hann bað mig að svara spurningum varðandi þetta mál og hefur sjálfsagt beint sínum spurningum til fleiri aðila. Það sem hér fer á eftir eru svör mín við spurningum.

A Dutch student, Mr. Tim Gemers, in the Collége d´Europe in Belgium has selected as his research theme for his Msc. thesis the question: Why is a majority of Icelanders, according to opinion polls, opposed to Iceland´s membership of the European Union? He sent me a questionnaire concerning the topic. What follows are my answers to Mr. Gemers´questions.

Questionnaire:

l. Fish – is Iceland better off inside or outside the CFP?

INTRODUCTION: Keep in mind that everything to do with fishing is central to public discourse in Iceland. The fishing industry was the mainstay of Iceland´s industrialization. Exports of seafood provided until fairly recently up to 80-90% of Iceland´s foreign currency earnings. Although reduced in national significance through diversification (energy-aluminium, tourism, pharmaceuticals and hig-tech services), the fishing industry remains the mainstay of our rural economy. The Cod-Wars against Great Britain (1954-75) are remembered as a continuation of our independence struggle against Denmark. The Icelandic fisheries policy, based on a strictly regulated quota system since 1984, is considered to be fairly successfull in terms of preservation of fish stocks and profitability. In comparison the CFP of the EU is generally considered to be unsustainable, inefficient and wasteful (still heavily subsidized despite recents attempts at reform).

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THE NEO-LIB. UTOPIA DOWN ON EARTH

Sir –
America´s Founding Fathers, with their phobia against strong central government, would have been well advised to look at the Old Icelandic Republic (930-1262 A.D.) for inspiration, rather than this „revered piece of sheepskin“ (The „Magna Carta at 800“, Dec. 20ieth, 2014).

The principal institution of the Republic was Alþingi (national parliament, founded 930 A.D.). Alþingi was both a legislative assembly and a court of law, intended for the peaceful settlements of disputes.

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A VIEW FROM THE HIGH NORTH. An interview with Mr. Jón Baldvin Hannibalsson, former minister for foreign affairs of Iceland by Kourosh Ziabari

1. Baltic liberation and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Why did I take it upon myself to promote the cause of the Baltic nations´ restored independence in the early nineties? Because the leaders of the West at the time were not, de facto, following up on their rethoric on democracy and national self-determination. Why not? Because they had, unwisely, placed all their bets for ending the Cold War on the political fate of president Gorbachev. Nothing should be said or done which undermined his position. If he were to be deposed, the hardliners would come back. And there was a lot at stake. We might return to the Cold War. That would mean the end of the peace process. Negotiations on both conventional and nuclear disarmament would be off the agenda. The peaceful reunification of Germany would no longer be possible. And the liberation of Central and Eastern Europe might be put down by force.

All of this, they said, was dependent upon Mr. Gorbachev remaining in power. When Mr. Gorbachev´s proposed domestic reforms turned out to be a failure, his only remaining mission was to keep the Soviet Union together under a new constitution – at all cost. So, the leaders of the West ended up supporting Gorbachev´s policy of keeping the Soviet Union together ( and the Yugoslav Federation as well) – in the name of stability. That´s why president Bush made his notorious „chicken speech“ in Kiev in February 1990, appealing to the Ukrainians „not to succumb to extreme nationalism“, but to remain loyal to the Soviet Union in the name of peace and stability. This speech by an American president would be music to the ears of Mr. Putin, who has long mourned the demise of the Soviet Union as „the greatest geo-strategic disaster of the 20ieth century“.

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Bréfaskriftir á milli JB og R. Taagepera

Á vormisseri 2014 kenndi ég nokkur námskeið við Háskólann í Tartu í Eistlandi. Ég hafði vinnuaðstöðu í skrifstofu í háskólabyggingunni, sem var merkt Prófessor Dr. Rein Taagepera. Nafnið rifjaði upp fyrir mér skondna sögu, en sannleiksgildi hennar er staðfest í bréfaskrifum okkar, sem fer hér á eftir.

Sagan snýst um forsetakosningar í Eistlandi 1992 og pólitíska framtíð Lennarts Meri, míns gamla vinar. Meri var fyrsti utanríkisráðherra hins nýfrjálsa Eistlands. Pólitíkin í árdaga eistneska lýðveldisins var sviptivindasöm. Þegar árið 1992 hafði Meri hrökklast út úr pólitíkinni og var gerður að sendiherra Eistlands í Finnlandi. Þar bar fundum okkar enn saman á mikilli ráðstefnu á vegum OSCE um öryggismál. Sendiherrann var hálf vængbrotinn. Hið unga lýðveldi var staurblankt og átti ekki fyrir rafmagnsreikningnum. Forsetakosningar voru framundan eftir nokkra mánuði. Meri taldi sig ekki eiga sjans. Við sátum uppi við kertaljós í fátæklega búnum sendiherrabústaðnum. Það var þessa nótt, sem ég gerðist kosningastjóri Lennarts Meri, eins og bréfaskiptin leiða í ljós.

Dr. Rein Taagepera is a wellknown scholar (political science) and an Estonian in exile (Californa, USA). He became a candidate for president of Estonia in the elections 1992. Our correspondence, which follows, is about those presidential elections and my accidental role as a sort of political spin doctor for my friend, Meri. I have told the story in greater detail in an interview with Askur Alas in the Estonian magazine, Keskus.

Dear Dr. Taagepera.

You may be surprised to receive this letter from out of the blue – or rather from your office (room 312) at The Institute of Governmental Politics of the University of Tartu. Well, here comes the explanation:

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LENNART MERI´S SPIN DOCTOR

During spring semester 2014 I taught a few courses for master-level students in Political Science and International Relations at the University of Tartu in Estonia. I was alotted an office with a sign on the door: Professor Dr. Rein Taagepera. The name refreshed my memory of my accidental involvement in Estonia´s presidential elections anno 1992. The truthfulness of the story is confirmed by my correspondence with Dr. Taagepera, which follows.

The story is about the presidential elections in Estonia in 1992 and the political future of Lennart Meri, my old friend. Meri became the first foreign minister of Estonia after restored independence. In the early days of the republic Estonian politics were in a flux. By the year 1992 Meri had actually dropped out of politics and had been made ambassador to Finland in Helsinki. That´s where we met once again at a major OSCE- conference on European security policies.

The ambassador was a bit down and out, it seemed to me. The young republic was almost broke; they couldn´t afford to pay the electricity bill. That´s why we sat there in the almost empty amassador´s residence by candlelight late into the night. The presidential elections were a few months ahead. Meri felt he didn´t have a chance. It was during this night that I became Lennart´s spin doctor which is confirmed in the following correspondence.

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